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Now that things are converging to a Biden win, we have a good chance to address our biggest collective scare this election week. Here's a (long) thread on Florida, the role of Venezuela(ns), and what Tuesday means for the Biden administration and its strategy on Venezuela.
Despite making important inroads in traditionally Republican areas of the state, Democrats lost ***20 points*** to their 2016 turnout in Miami-Dade. This was pivotal for losing the state. https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/election/article246923842.html
This huge swing was due to the Republicans' success in polarizing Cuban Americans and other hispanics. The argument is that Biden is a trojan horse for a socialist agenda that will turn the US into a new Venezuela. The map below makes it clear. https://twitter.com/LaurenLeatherby/status/1324144924728664069
@alexburnsNYT and @mikiebarb on @nytimes's The Daily talk about the Venezuelan association. @washingtonpost's The Daily 202 highlights the role of Vzlans in MIA.
(Side note: You both are called "The Daily", what's up with that?)
https://open.spotify.com/episode/3Abbpai114oHwf5kL7Gc8d?si=2GxeE0GHThm3lYx6QWb0pg https://open.spotify.com/episode/6WqWHYpbgIsI50xVSG2G3l?si=wXBpKBjLR1CInarY9jr4Mg
(Side note: You both are called "The Daily", what's up with that?)
https://open.spotify.com/episode/3Abbpai114oHwf5kL7Gc8d?si=2GxeE0GHThm3lYx6QWb0pg https://open.spotify.com/episode/6WqWHYpbgIsI50xVSG2G3l?si=wXBpKBjLR1CInarY9jr4Mg
The topic of Venezuela is often used in other Latin American countries as a way to paint all left-leaning candidates with a broad brush, marking them all as "Socialistas" or "Castro-Chavistas". https://www.bbc.com/mundo/noticias-america-latina-44064677
Triggered by our traumas with Chavismo, Venezuelan migrants and refugees are often a sounding board for these mischaracterizations. Vargas and Rozo wrote about this in the Colombian context.
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3401036
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3401036
Being "The Capital of Latin America" and having a long history with Venezuelan migration, it is not strange that this strategy of mischaracterization is also politically expedient in Miami. https://www.chathamhouse.org/2020/10/trump-and-biden-florida-battle-cuban-and-venezuelan-vote
Venezuela usually comes up in Latin American electoral campaigns in two different ways:
A) What do the candidates think about the Chavista regime, and what are they going to do about it?
B) What candidate is more likely to take the country down the Venezuelan path?
A) What do the candidates think about the Chavista regime, and what are they going to do about it?
B) What candidate is more likely to take the country down the Venezuelan path?
While Venezuelan migrants care mostly about the former, locals care almost strictly about the latter. The problem is that, given how grotesque the Venezuelan situation is, not having a principled stance on the former erodes a candidate's credibility on the latter.
Being "mild" or "pragmatic" about Chavismo allows your rival to paint you as someone that does not think that what's happening in Venezuela is morally shameful. This helps rivals link you to those in your political system that are truly aligned with Chavismo.
In Colombia, they say "everyone in the left are Castro-Chavista" no matter the differences between Fajardo and Petro. In Spain, PSOE and PODEMOS are both equally Chavistas. In the US, Biden is a Trojan Horse for Bernie. Venezuelans say "Yes, trust me, they are all like Chávez"
How should center-left candidates navigate these accusations to erode their credibility and avoid Venezuelan backlash?
1) Be specific and uncompromising about how you reject and will battle Chavismo from the presidency.
2) Have plans to deal with the Venezuelan refugee crisis.
1) Be specific and uncompromising about how you reject and will battle Chavismo from the presidency.
2) Have plans to deal with the Venezuelan refugee crisis.
3) Build multi-partizan consensus about your strategy.
4) Cut ties with true allies of Chavismo in your country, and accuse those relativizing the crisis.
I wrote about this in a bit more detail for @CaracasChron: https://www.caracaschronicles.com/2018/03/09/the-left-in-the-americas-and-the-problem-with-losing-the-moral-high-ground-on-venezuela/
4) Cut ties with true allies of Chavismo in your country, and accuse those relativizing the crisis.
I wrote about this in a bit more detail for @CaracasChron: https://www.caracaschronicles.com/2018/03/09/the-left-in-the-americas-and-the-problem-with-losing-the-moral-high-ground-on-venezuela/
Could have Biden perform better in Miami-Dade with a different, stronger and specific Venezuela strategy? I believe so. Moreover, I believe that appealing to former democrats that sided with Trump on Tuesday hinges on pursuing consistent policies on Venezuela.
There are signs of worry. @nytimes reports that Biden's foreign policy advisors "conveyed little faith" (?) in treating Juan Guaidó as Interim President and consider negotiating with Maduro. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/27/world/americas/joe-biden-latin-america-policy.html
Moreover, in a conversation with @pueblo_people, @dkronick mentioned how advisers close to Biden's team are arguing for sanction relief and "facilitating negotiations" with Wall Street regarding Venezuela's foreign debt, CITGO and other Venezuelan assets. https://ticketplate.com/checkout/pueblo-day-the-people-vota1-2011031900/confirm-tickets/no-me-dejen-fuera
As I've discussed before, these policies would erode the chances of a democratic transition and a sustainable response to the Venezuelan complex crisis. But they would also be terrible politics, as they would be portrayed in Miami as confirming Tuesday's fears into the future.
Biden did offer TPS to Venezuelans, accusing Trump of failing to do so. This is a great way to deal with point 2 above. But while this is a way to help those forced to leave, it is not a way to help them recover the home they lost - something that many Latin Americans relate to.
TPS by itself, without policies pushing for a democratic transition, is perhaps not only insufficiently appealing (as it proved on Tuesday), but probably understood as a signal that the administration is going to accept the Chavista regime and treat Venezuela as another Cuba.
What should Biden's Venezuela Policy look like? I believe the three key elements should be:
1) TPS and support to provide humanitarian aid in Venezuela,
2) Expanded multilateral diplomatic and economic pressure, and
3) Full support for asset protection.
1) TPS and support to provide humanitarian aid in Venezuela,
2) Expanded multilateral diplomatic and economic pressure, and
3) Full support for asset protection.
On (1): Beyond TPS, Venezuelans suffering under Maduro should be the priority. New technologies have allowed Guaidó to circumvent his grip and transfer resources to health workers during the COVID19 pandemic. Support on these efforts would be consequential https://presidenciave.com/heroesdelasalud/
On (2): Biden should replicate Obama's success with the Iran Nuclear Deal, when coordinated multilateral economic sanctions were key to roll back their nuclear program. Expanding individual and economic sanctions should be on the table for open, credible presidential elections.
On (3): All of the country's foreign assets are key to its recovery - especially CITGO, which Venezuela relies on to sell its mostly extra-heavy oil. Protecting assets means preventing their liquidation, leading to debt restructuring negotiations with a legitimate government.
These policies are not only the right ones with regards to promoting a democratic transition and a sustainable response to the complex crisis in Venezuela, but they are also most likely to prevent a sustained mischaracterization of the Biden administration into the future.
