Read on Twitter
In 2016, Trump beat Clinton 53% to 41% in Virginia's CD-01.
In 2020, Biden beat Trump 54% to 44% in that same district.
But districts can swing, right? Of course. But let's look at some more numbers... https://twitter.com/AutistLvsMatter/status/1324749018371661824
In 2020, Biden beat Trump 54% to 44% in that same district.
But districts can swing, right? Of course. But let's look at some more numbers... https://twitter.com/AutistLvsMatter/status/1324749018371661824
How many voters voted for president, but didn't vote in the congressional race? According to @AP numbers, Wittman won with 254,932 votes (58.4%) vs. Rashid's 181,228 votes (41.6%).
That's a total of 436,160 votes.
That's a total of 436,160 votes.
In the very same election, how many people voted for president in total? According to the Virginia Dept of Election, 544,028.
That's 107,868 who voted for president, but did not vote for Congress.
That's 20% of voters declining to vote for Congress!
That's 107,868 who voted for president, but did not vote for Congress.
That's 20% of voters declining to vote for Congress!
In the words of Alex Jones, I'm kinda ret*rded, so I have no idea if this a weird thing to happen. Can only dive deeper...
Well, as @AutistLvsMatter points out in tweet above, almost all those "lazy" voters were Biden voters...
Well, as @AutistLvsMatter points out in tweet above, almost all those "lazy" voters were Biden voters...
Let's say that if you are a VA District 1 voter, your congressional vote will be in line with your presidential vote (if you vote for Congress).
In other words, if you vote for Congress, then you vote either Trump & Wittman or Biden & Rashid.
In other words, if you vote for Congress, then you vote either Trump & Wittman or Biden & Rashid.
What does this hypothetical reveal? It shows that 2,974 people voted for Trump but not for Wittman (257,906 - 254,932=2,974). That's 1% of Trump voters who could not be bothered to vote for Congress.
How about the Democrats? 276,430 people turned up to vote for Biden, but a piddling 181,228 voted for Rashid.
That's 95,202 Biden voters who couldn't lend a hand to the Democratic congressional candidate - i.e. 34%!
I may be kinda ret*rded, but that seems big.
That's 95,202 Biden voters who couldn't lend a hand to the Democratic congressional candidate - i.e. 34%!
I may be kinda ret*rded, but that seems big.
But hold on - Wittman, the Republican, is an incumbent. So surely he has some sort of advantage, right? Republicans happily vote for him, some moderate Democrats cross over, and others don't bother. It's the incumbent advantage, right?
Well, let's take a look at 2016, when Wittman was challenged by a different Democrat.
Back then, Wittman won with a similar margin - 60% to the Democrat Matt Rowe's 37% (an independent got 3%).
Back then, Wittman won with a similar margin - 60% to the Democrat Matt Rowe's 37% (an independent got 3%).
In 2016, 384,601 total votes were cast for Congress in this district. So let's compare that to how many votes were cast for President in the same district, and see if Democrats here in Virginia's First like to vote for President but don't care about Congress, as a rule.
In 2016, VA's First cast 399,081 votes for President, giving Trump a sizeable 53%, considering 3rd parties peeled off more than 20K votes, leaving Hillary with a mere 41%.
399,081 presidential votes MINUS 384,601 congressional votes EQUALS... 14,480.
So, 14,480 didn't vote for Congress even though they voted for President. That's 3.6%... which seems like a reasonable amount.
So, 14,480 didn't vote for Congress even though they voted for President. That's 3.6%... which seems like a reasonable amount.
3.6% is reasonable. But 2020? 20% Not very reasonable... And why was it all on one side? 1% GOP, and 34% Democrat?
And if we do the same hypothetical for 2016, in which people vote consistently within their party if they vote for Pres and Cong, what do we find?
And if we do the same hypothetical for 2016, in which people vote consistently within their party if they vote for Pres and Cong, what do we find?
Well, striking off all third parties (in both races), we're left with this:
Trump: 212,402
Wittman-R: 230,213
vs
Clinton: 163,522
Rowe-D: 140,785
In this scenario, Trump actually got FEWER votes than the GOP congressman.
Trump: 212,402
Wittman-R: 230,213
vs
Clinton: 163,522
Rowe-D: 140,785
In this scenario, Trump actually got FEWER votes than the GOP congressman.
But look at Clinton. 23K people voted for her, but didn't vote for the Democrat in Congress. That's a lot, 14%, but NOTHING compared to the 34% who voted for Biden this year, but didn't vote for the Democrat in Congress.
That 14% actually goes down...
That 14% actually goes down...
If we extend our hypothetical, and say that many progressives in VA CD-01 probably gritted their teeth to vote for Hillary, but down ballot registered their discontent and voted Green, that would explain the 12,866 people who voted for Gail Parker, the Green congress candidate.
After all, only 2,629 people in the district voted for Jill Stein, the Green candidate for president. So in the district there are clearly 2,629 diehard progressives who would rather takes votes away from Hillary and vote Green than defeat Trump.
But there are about 10K voters who aren't diehard Greens, and were willing to go along with the DNC insofar as beating Trump mattered. If those people did indeed mostly vote for Clinton...
...then the amount of people who voted for Clinton but did NOT vote for Congress drops down to a mere 3,000 or so people.
In other words, approx. 2% of people voting for Clinton were too lazy to vote for Congress in 2016. Similar to Trump in both years.
In other words, approx. 2% of people voting for Clinton were too lazy to vote for Congress in 2016. Similar to Trump in both years.
Who is the outlier here? Biden. WTF is going on?
When @AutistLvsMatter pointed this out and his thread went viral, the VA Dept of Elections website suddenly changed. While the @AP still shows very similar numbers to what @AutistLvsMatter screenshotted, the VA Dept of Elections website is now VERY different. What's going on?
But now the VA Dept of Elections has corrected itself. Wittman is again the winner, and Rashid's magic votes disappeared. He's back down to 183,798 votes, leaving an immense gap between how many votes Biden got and how many his fellow Democrat got.
https://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2020%20November%20General/Site/Congress.html
https://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2020%20November%20General/Site/Congress.html
In summary (numbers slightly updated since results are trickling in):
2016
Pres votes: 399,081
Cong votes: 384,601
% no-cong-vote: 3.6%
2020
Pres votes: 544,086
Cong votes: 442,686
% no-cong-votes: 19%
% Trump no-cong vote: 1.2%
% Biden no-cong-vote: 34.4%
2016
Pres votes: 399,081
Cong votes: 384,601
% no-cong-vote: 3.6%
2020
Pres votes: 544,086
Cong votes: 442,686
% no-cong-votes: 19%
% Trump no-cong vote: 1.2%
% Biden no-cong-vote: 34.4%
