The constant monitoring of the covid tolls i think is starting to take a toll, not sure how to explain it, of feeling constant futility i guess?

In January and February i said it was coming and we would fuck it up, because it was obvious, of course we were. And then that the winter would be worse than the spring. But I thought we would at least learn...something, in between? But we might have “unlearned” shit since March.

Like we as a population are going to do an even worse job this winter, than we did in March. Im not talking case counts, were fucked there. Im talking basic human behaviors that can help lower the case count. Wearing masks. Distancing. Not partying. Its just not gonna happen

And see the thing is, its not like we dont know exactly whats going to happen. We KNEW the pandemic of 1919, the best historic precedent, second wave is where most of the deaths occurred. We KNEW that in march. We didnt give a fuck. https://www.history.com/news/spanish-flu-second-wave-resurgence

And now weve got a resistant form spreading in Europe. Itll be here soon if its not already

So now were stuck praying it doesnt mutate into something more lethal, literally just hoping and praying, because were completely unprepared with no signs of preparation coming before at least February.

The leading vaccine candidates are at best 65% effective, for an indeterminate amount of time but almost assuredly less than a year. That was before a mutation thatbwill assuredly lower that percentage. So heres another math exercise

Assuming its 65% effective, and herd immunity for a population kicks in at above 70%, solve for X, what percentage of the population has to be innoculated to achieve herd immunity, even assuming 10% of the population already has a temporary immunity?

If you arrive at a number around or in excess of 100%, congrats. You win. Now, as a thought exercise do you think even close to 100% of the population will take the vaccine? 75%? 50%?

Now lets incorporate another variable, time. If the vaccine is only effective for lets say 6 months, that means you have to inoculate most of your population IN that window to have a chance at herd immunity kicking in.

Do we have the supply chains and distribution mechanisms to do even 50% of the population in the next six months? Absolutely not. Its laughable to pretend.

Especially since we havent even approved and manufacuted a vax. So where does that leave us this winter and next year? I dont know. But its not fucking good. Fin.