Here's how the count has changed in Pennsylvania since shortly before 9 a.m., when Biden took the lead:

PA has uploaded 25,476 results. 23K were mail-in ballots.

Biden won the mail-ins by almost exactly a 2:1 ratio, and his lead has climbed from 5,510 to 13,471.

By my estimate, there are *at least* 95,652 mail-in ballots left to tally. Like we've said all day (and which was just confirmed w/ batch from Westmoreland County), Biden is only expected to grow lead w/ these. Even in Republican strongholds.

Now, as I explain in this story, there's still a large pool of ballots left to review (only to be counted if deemed eligible). By York Daily Record's #, it's clear there are at least 92,500 provisional ballots. https://www.post-gazette.com/news/politics-state/2020/11/05/Pennsylvania-election-results-2020-11-5-count-mail-in-ballots-provisional-ballot/stories/202011050164

For those who don't know, provisionals are ballots that were cast, at in-person precincts on Election Day, by voters who either ran into problems with their eligibility or wanted to vote in-person even though they applied for a mail-in ballot (among other reasons.)

Lara Putnam, a University of Pittsburgh professor who studies the electoral landscape in Western Pennsylvania, said she expects the provisional ballots to “less Biden-heavy than mail-ins, but still net Biden more votes than Trump.”

Putnam said she anticipates some provisional ballots to be driven by “the usual range of factors” that more often capture Democratic than Republican voters — like age and mobility — while the rest are driven by mail-in ballot requests that have skewed heavily pro-Dem.

Putnam also cited data compiled by Mike Johnson here: https://twitter.com/MikeJohnsonPA/status/1324777080740077573?s=20

But no one can be certain how these provisionals will come down -- so no need to get angry at Steve Kornacki. Remember, too, that if the number of provisionals lands at around 100K, not all of those will count.

Now, there are also an unknown number of late-arriving mail-in ballots that will be counted if they are received by mail by 5 p.m. today and were postmarked on or before Election Day. The number is shaping up to be “significantly lower” than anticipated, SOS said yesterday.