Some stream of consciousness thoughts on the upcoming Dolphins-Cardinals game. Have a listen to the @3YardsPerCarry preview episode I did with @Alf_Arteaga if you want to hear more. https://twitter.com/3YardsPerCarry/status/1324757980861079552?s=20

Cardinals offense is unique in that DeAndre Hopkins nearly always works the left sideline from LWR, Christian Kirk nearly always works the right sideline from RWR, and both Larry Fitzgerald and Andy Isabella work the Slots.

They use 4-WR personnel over 20%. Most in the NFL.

This setup works for Miami, who have two perimeter man specialists in Byron Jones and Xavien Howard.

Dolphins have had Byron Jones work almost exclusively at RCB, so unless there's a sudden strategic change, he'll be on Hopkins.

That leaves Xavien Howard on Christian Kirk.

Btw, recall Xavien had a much-ballyhooed matchup w/ Hopkins on TNF in 2018, including some pre-game trash talk in the press, ("Who is Xavien Howard?"). Xavien locked Hopkins down in 1st half. But then Hopkins got him in 2nd half, including a TD. Howard was...upset.

Xavien Howard's PFF stat line vs. Hopkins in 2018 looked ok (3 of 4 for 23 yards, 1 TD).

Byron Jones also played Hopkins in 2018, allowed 4 of 5 for 74 yards...but no TD.

That TD on Howard though...may matter. Hopkins is Arizona's most popular target in that area of the field.

Anyway, probably moot as Hopkins tends to play on the left and that's the side Miami plays Byron and that's that.

But who plays Larry Fitzgerald? Nowadays, Cardinals use the legend almost like a pseudo-TE.

Who plays TEs in Miami. Eric Rowe!

That's where my money goes.

But then there's the business of stopping Kyler Murray. As usual, I have thoughts.

I was a huge fan of his in college (you may remember). One mistake D-Coord's often made was pulling 8 back, including a spy.

Giving that lil dynamo so much time and space? He picked them apart!

Miami has to come after Kyler, dominating his vision and passing lanes with big tall rushers, ready to knock down passes that come out off the 5'10" passer's hand.

Great! They just made a mockery of Jared Goff and the Rams by doing exactly that with zero blitzes!

That has drawbacks. To quote Verbal Kint, "How do you shoot the devil in the back? What if you miss?" Come after Kyler, better make sure you get him down, better make sure Christian Kirk/Andy Isabella aren't running free behind your DBs. Quick way to lose if you mess it up.

Patriots used to have a LB Marquis Flowers. I tweeted about him before. Hybrid type, 4.4 speed, seemed to have a role exogenous to NE's coverage scheme. He was on field mostly against mobile QBs to spy/blitz the hell out of them. Kamu Grugier-Hill may fit that role beautifully.

Miami have other players smart and athletic enough, good enough blitzers, to go after Murray, e.g. Kyle Van Noy, Jerome Baker, Brandon Jones. But they may have important other roles in the integrity of the defense, so there's room to use Grugier-Hill this way as well.

But here's where it gets rough for Miami. NO HUDDLE. Cardinals are the most No Huddle oriented offense in the NFL.

And *when* Miami's D struggled vs. Rams last week, how did they struggle?

No Huddle. Easily. That's on tape with bright, flashing lights. And not the first game.

Miami could also struggle in the aforementioned red zone. Cardinals are the #5 red zone offense in the NFL in touchdown percentage. Miami's defense, good as they are, rank #21.

Cards operate a potent run game in the red zone, leveraging Kyler's running ability in there.

Last point to make, it needs to be said, Detroit Lions were able to tie Kyler/Kingsbury in 2019 (27-27), and beat them in 2020 (26-23), with worse talent than Miami on defense.

Why does that matter? Flores & Matt Patricia run same defense, think a lot alike. Could be important.

On the other side of the ball for Miami, I have concerns.

Forgetting Tua's a rookie, the team has made a QB switch.

That means a chemistry reset with pass catchers, pass protectors, and even the play-caller.

And every single one of those were explicitly apparent last week.

Let's focus on the play-caller aspect of this. Simple fact, Chan Gailey has been tied to Ryan Fitzpatrick at the hip for his last 6 years as an OC.

Until we actually see the chemistry develop, it's hard to draw a trend line and predict the offense suddenly comes alive.

Also a significant problem in offensive backfield, ESPECIALLY with some of the changes they seem to be making now that Tua is QB.

No Myles Gaskin. Matt Breida probably doesn't play. You're down to Jordan Howard (who has struggled, may not fit), Patrick Laird, Salvon Ahmed.

Dolphins want the ground game to take pressure off their rookie QB who just had his hip crunched this time last year. But do they really have the backs to do it?

Look for them to continue borrowing the abilities of Malcolm Perry, Lynn Bowden, and Jakeem Grant this way.

Vance Joseph has Arizona's defense playing well. They're #7 in the NFL on 3rd down. Miami's offense...has not been good on 3rd down.

But Cards have a lot of injuries. DT Rashard Lawrence, DE Chandler Jones, DE Zach Allen, LB Devon Kennard & CB Byron Murphy (both COVID Reserve).

With Arizona's injuries, there's opportunity for Miami to get their offense off the ground.

Tua's shown the skills to do it, be it accuracy, feet vs. pressure, ability to get thru progressions quickly, decision-making. After first 3 drives last week, those were all good.

Overall, I'm not taking the Dolphins to win this, and I've got 10 reasons for not doing so.

1. Miami are on the road, traveling cross-country.

2. Cardinals are coming off bye, having had an extra week of prep.

3. Miami just had a big win, so there's potential for hangover.

4. Offense didn't really 'earn' the win. There's a bit of Vegas history with follow-on underperformance after a win that hadn't really been earned by the offense.

5. Defense took advantage of some unique advantages vs. Rams, e.g. Flores vs. Goff/McVay, coming off the bye week.

6. Cardinals are the most No Huddle offense in the league and Miami's defense (thus far) has shown peculiar weakness to that.

7. Miami's defense has yet to win against a mobile QB (Cam Newton, Josh Allen, Russell Wilson) and that's not a coincidence. It changes what you can do.

8. Cardinals have one of the best red zone offenses in the NFL, and the Dolphins defense has been spotty there.

9. We've yet to see chemistry on offense post-QB switch, especially between the new QB and the play-caller (who was a major Ryan Fitzpatrick stan).

10. Miami's new approach with Tua at QB may require better RBs than they've got, especially in this game, with Myles Gaskin out, and Matt Breida not practicing.

These are just the factors that swing me in this direction. Obviously, Miami have things going in their favor, too.

A few things I will say, though.

If Dolphins overcome these obstacles and win this game, be very bullish. A couple of reasons for that.

One, it'll be first proof the defense can stand up to a mobile QB.

Two, it'll be first proof the offense can truly get it done w/ Tua.