Thread by @DestructiveChem, Quinnipiac polling misses. A thread.Let's start nationally.BIDEN: 50%TRUMP: 39%10/28-11/1, MOE: 2.5Q: Biden [...]

Quinnipiac polling misses. A thread.
Let's start nationally.

BIDEN: 50%
TRUMP: 39%
10/28-11/1, MOE: 2.5

Q: Biden +11
Actual: Biden +~4.5
Miss: D +5.5 https://poll.qu.edu/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=3683

QU Poll Release Detail

Florida And Ohio: Biden Has The Edge Over Trump, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Nationally, Biden Maintains A Strong Lead

https://poll.qu.edu/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=3683

Staying presidential with Ohio

OHIO
Biden: 47%
Trump: 43%
10/28-11/1, MOE: 2.6

Q: Biden +4
Actual: Trump + 8.2
Miss: D +12.2

FLORIDA
Biden: 47%
Trump 42%
10/28-11/1, MOE: 2.4

Q: Biden +5
Actual: Trump + 3.4
Miss: D + 8.4

PENNSYLVANIA
Biden: 51%
Trump: 44%
10/23-10/27, MOE: 2.7

Q: Biden +7
Actual: Biden +.2
Miss: D + ~6.8 https://poll.qu.edu/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=3682

QU Poll Release Detail

Florida And Iowa Races Are Too Close To Call, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Biden Maintains His Lead In Pennsylvania, Has Narrow Lead In Ohio

https://poll.qu.edu/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=3682

IOWA
Trump: 47%
Biden: 46%
10/23-10/27, MOE: 2.7

Q: Trump +1
Actual: Trump +8.2
Miss: D +7.2

Let's move on to the Senate races, starting with South Carolina.

SOUTH CAROLINA Senate
Graham: 48%
Harrison: 48%
9/23-9/27, MOE 2.9
Q: Tie
Actual: Graham +10.2
Miss: D +10.2

https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/sc/sc09302020_skyg73.pdf

IOWA Senate
Ernst: 48%
Greenfield: 46%
10/23-10/27, MOE 2.8
Q: Ernst +2
Actual: Ernst + 6.6
Miss: D+4.6 https://poll.qu.edu/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=3682

QU Poll Release Detail

Florida And Iowa Races Are Too Close To Call, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Biden Maintains His Lead In Pennsylvania, Has Narrow Lead In Ohio

https://poll.qu.edu/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=3682

GEORGIA Senate
Ossoff: 51%
Perdue: 45%
10/8 - 10/12 MOE 3.0
Q: Ossoff +6
Actual: Perdue +2
Miss: D +8 https://poll.qu.edu/georgia/release-detail?ReleaseID=3679

QU Poll Release Detail

Biden Is Ahead In Georgia, But It Is Too Close To Call In Ohio, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Democrats Lead In Both Georgia Senate Races

https://poll.qu.edu/georgia/release-detail?ReleaseID=3679

And the pièce de résistance: the Maine Senate race.

MAINE Senate
Gideon: 54%
Collins: 42%
9/10 - 9/14 MOE 2.9
Q: Gideon +12
Actual: Collins +8.8

Miss: *D +20.8*

A **21 point** miss. https://poll.qu.edu/kentucky/release-detail?ReleaseID=3673

QU Poll Release Detail

Maine, South Carolina, And Kentucky Senate Races: Collins Trails, Graham Ties, And McConnell Leads, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Majority Plan To Vote In Person On Nov. 3 In Each State

https://poll.qu.edu/kentucky/release-detail?ReleaseID=3673

Quinnipiac currently has a B+ on Nate Silver's 538 polling aggregate, btw. Unacceptable failures, and this cycle is not unique for Quinnipiac.

And after all this failure, Silver has the audacity to say this: https://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/ny-nate-silver-fires-back-at-fivethirtyeight-critics-20201105-d5ho3nfkmrc2lo7tsags6jtdi4-story.html

‘F--k you, we did a good job’: Polling guru Nate Silver defends election predictions amid backlash

Polling guru Nate Silver, founder and editor-in-chief of the FiveThirtyEight website, didn’t mince words responding to critics who are accusing him of misleading voters with election predictions that...

https://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/ny-nate-silver-fires-back-at-fivethirtyeight-critics-20201105-d5ho3nfkmrc2lo7tsags6jtdi4-story.html

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