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Following up on this thread of what a Biden/R Senate might mean for China policy, I wanted to offer more thoughts on the structural issues and major questions facing a Biden admin that will shape China policy in 2021. (1/x) https://twitter.com/dericsayers/status/1324131521683402752
I see two structural constraints that will lock a Biden admin into a continued confrontational relationship with PRC out of the gate. First, Biden pledged to be tougher on HK/Xinjiang issues and we should expect early action on this in the late winter as nominees are confirmed.
Second, Biden pledged to focus on investing in alliances. Allies/partners like Australia, Taiwan, India, and Japan are under coercive pressure from Beijing on a daily basis. This demand signal will ensure responding to these pressures from Beijing are an early focus for the admin
On allies, Biden has said he will multilateralize an approach towards econ/tech policy with China. While Trump focused on burden sharing in terms of allied spending, Biden’s version of burden sharing could mean asking allies to jointly impose export restrictions on China.
In addition, there are three questions a Biden team will have to answer that will shape their China/Asia focus. First, what priority will addressing the China competition be? Is it a top issue deserving full cabinet attention or one of several that will dilute focus?
Second, how will Biden address the issue linkage challenge that plagued the Obama II team ? Will they focus on areas of disagreement while also pursuing cooperation with Beijing on climate? Or will demand for action on climate force issue of contention to the sidelines?
Third, personnel is policy. Will a cabinet (specifically NSC, DoD, State, Commerce, Treasury, Justice) lean in a more competitive direction on China issues or will Secretaries place less emphasis on China from their Departments? After State, Treasury and Commerce are key.
In addition, a younger generation of Asia hands that have emerged in a post 2001 US-China world and take a more competitive/pessimistic view of PRC are likely to fill the ranks of key Assistant Secretary and Deputy Assistant Secretary positions.
