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PREVIEW THREAD: CLEMSON TIGERS
It is on! The #4 ranked Irish are facing off the with #1 ranked Clemson Tigers after months of anticipation. We have the numbers to get you ready for the big game! (1/13) #GoIrish #BeatTigers
It is on! The #4 ranked Irish are facing off the with #1 ranked Clemson Tigers after months of anticipation. We have the numbers to get you ready for the big game! (1/13) #GoIrish #BeatTigers
For all our new followers thanks to @HorsemenPod, welcome! Here is an analytics primer to get you caught up on all of the metrics we will be using to break down this great matchup. (2/13) https://www.onefootdown.com/21438547/primer-for-understanding-analytics-recaps-and-previews-college-football-notre-dame-advanced-stats-nd
Trevor Lawrence will miss this matchup, but DJ Uiagalelei is a formidable backup. He was the second ranked player in his class last season and posted excellent metrics against Boston College. His passing EPA/play is identical to Lawrence, although sample is small. (3/13)
Uiagalelei has also been better on the ground than Trevor Lawrence, although again sample size is small. The Irish have struggled at times against QB rushing this season (Duke, L'Ville, and FSU all had positive EPA on QB rushes) so watch for DJ to get going on the ground. (4/13)
Clemson's rushing good with Etienne at a solid but unspectacular 0.1 EPA/rush. He is more lethal in the receiving game averaging 0.91 EPA/target. PFF has ranked Clemson as just the 31st best run blocking O-line, so don't assume they will torch the Irish on the ground. (5/13)
The Irish will have to contain Clemson deep threat Amari Rodgers, who is such an efficient target he is all alone in this chart. The Irish have given up 0.96 EPA/play on passes traveling over twenty yards in their last four games, so this is an area that must improve. (6/13)
Whether this involves having Kyle Hamilton play over the top more or playing the same defense with Shaun Crawford reacting to plays just a touch faster is up to Clark Lea (and we have full trust in that man) but how the Irish address this is an area to watch tomorrow. (7/13)
Irish passing has overtaken rushing as more efficient, and it has been especially efficient in recent weeks as Ian Book has improved. The Tigers give up -0.32 EPA to opposing rushers on 1st and 2nd down, so Tommy Rees has to be willing to #letbookcook on early downs. (8/13)
Avery Davis has filled into Braden Lenzy's role on short passes, with Ben Skowronek and Javon McKinley working down the field. McKinley has been efficient and is settling into the wide receiver one role more seamlessly than we anticipated. (9/13)
In the passing game, the Irish have to be ready to run short passes with Davis and Mayer if Clemson is bringing consistent pressure (like Pitt and Louisville did) and be ready to attack down the field with McKinley and Skowronek if Book is given time. (10/13)
As cliched as it is, the offensive game planners need to take what Clemson gives them and design the offense around it. Elite teams have coaches that make in game adjustments, so if the Irish want to be elite they will need their offensive coaches to be ready. (11/13)
Prediction wise, offense wins championships in college football and we're not sure the Irish offense can hang with Clemson's. We're taking Clemson to win the game 34-24, but do not be surprised by an Irish win. Vegas has us around 35% to win, we think that's about right. (12/13)
Thank you for reading! As always check out our preview on @onefootdown for more, and if you want even more info than that (it's Clemson of course you do) check out our podcast pinned to our account! Go Irish! (13/13) https://www.onefootdown.com/2020/11/6/21552753/notre-dame-football-analytics-preview-clemson-tigers-ian-book-amari-rogers-d-j-uiagalelei-irish-acc
