Gonna do a quick thread of takeaways on the US election that will only be of interest to absolute nerds who think about this stuff more than once every four years. It might be short, it might be long, who knows? Anyway, here we go:

1) Ohio is no longer a swing state in any meaningful sense of the term. It is now about 13% more republican than the country as a whole. How do you measure that? The US voted Biden +5 nationally. Trump won Ohio by 8. If the national needle moves to even, Ohio goes +13 red.

2) Using that same methodology, you can see a few trends: Though Biden won Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, these states are all now "lean Republican" at the Presidential level - all about 2-3% more Republican than the country as a whole.

3) For all the talk about Texas, it is still fully 12 per cent more Republican than the country as a whole. And given the cost of competing there, expect it to stay red for the extended foreseeable future.

4) On the other end of the scale, Virginia shows the problem for Republicans - it's been gone for a while, but North Carolina and Georgia and Arizona are now headed the same way. If they keep heading D at the rate Virginia did, they'll be unwinnable for Republicans by about 2032.

5) The polling was a disaster. And not just in the election. For four years we've heard about Trump's approval ratings, support for his policies, etc. Nearly every one of those polls was probably wrong. In truth, Trump's approval was probably never below about 44/45%.

6) The popular vote remains a monumental challenge for both parties. Democratic votes are distributed so unevenly - nearly all of Biden's popular vote margin comes from California, where it's useless to him. Take CA out, it's a 50/50 election, almost.

7) The GOP does not have much scope to grow to a majority of the popular vote in the short term, even as it has a lot of scope to grow to a convincing electoral win in 2024. Like it or not, this is creating a legitimacy crisis.

8) The path back to a lasting Senate majority for Democrats, on the other hand, is years away. They have three - three - Senators from the 25 states Trump won twice. All three are up for re-election in 2024, facing presidential level GOP turnout.

9) Meanwhile, lots of states Biden won are fertile ground for GOP senate candidates in 2022 - Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, even Minnesota. Mitch McConnell could be with us until 2028 at the earliest.

10) In the US House, the biggest result had nothing to do with the House at all. Republicans held a load of crucial state legislatures ahead of this year's census. That means they get to draw the districts for the next decade.

11) The big question for Democrats now is whether their suburban gains from Trump - especially amongst white women - are permanent, or on loan because of Trump. Nobody honestly knows the answer to that question. If it's "on loan", though, 2022 could be a bloodbath for Pelosi.

12) It is likely liberal frustration will grow, not wane, with Biden in office. This will be their third big POTUS win out of four. What do they have to show for it? Obamacare, which most of them don't much like. This will make Biden's life hard.

13) On Monday, lots of liberals were looking forward to climate action, gun control, expanding the court, adding states, universal healthcare, etc. All of those are now off the table, even if they somehow reach 50 Senate seats. AOC's voice will become more powerful, not less.

14) And because Democrats are so reliant on small dollar donations from fired up liberals, Biden's going to have a hard time. He needs to get them wins, but from where? Executive orders, most likely, just like Trump. Which brings the Supreme Court into play:

15) Expect to hear the phrase "chevron deference" a lot over the next four years. It's about to become the most disputed legal concept in America. What is it? It's about whether administrative agencies can make laws.

16) Imagine Biden's EPA issues new anti-hunting regulations. The "chevron deference" question is about whether that is constitutional, or whether those regulations need to be passed by congress. This conservative court, broadly, thinks that they do. This will cause controversy.

17) Speaking of the court, the first big fight of Biden's administration is likely to be over the seat of Stephen Breyer, the court's oldest liberal. He's 82. Expect that to come in June. What does a Republican Senate do to a Biden nominee? Confirm them, I think. But who knows?

18) Finally, who's the likely GOP nominee in 2024? I don't bet, but if I did, my money would be on this guy: Sen. Josh Hawley of Missouri. Trumpy, without being, well, Trump:

19) All in all, it was an absolutely mad election, and both sides have reason to be cheerful. I can't help thinking though, that one-term Presidencies might end up being like busses: You wait 30 years for one, and then two come along right in a row. /end