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Firstly, Biden was clear favourite before the votes, and - barring a few hours in the middle of Wednesday night, post-Florida - the clear favourite after votes started being counted too. Number 10 will know that.
Secondly, I'm sorry but I just do not buy the idea that the US election result was ever going to be the deciding factor in Number 10's deal/no deal political calculus. On every level that wouldn't make sense....
Why not?
1) The UK-EU future relationship is far too important for it to hinge on a handful of swing voters in Pennsylvania and Georgia. Even though Number 10 are relaxed about No Deal, why would they go for it based on something completely out of their control?
1) The UK-EU future relationship is far too important for it to hinge on a handful of swing voters in Pennsylvania and Georgia. Even though Number 10 are relaxed about No Deal, why would they go for it based on something completely out of their control?
2) The idea of US election as a deciding factor rests on several assumptions:
- 1) A US deal is guaranteed under Trump
- 2) A US deal is dead under Biden
- 3) A US deal compensates for No Deal with the EU
All of which are wrong, as I've said repeatedly for the last few weeks.
- 1) A US deal is guaranteed under Trump
- 2) A US deal is dead under Biden
- 3) A US deal compensates for No Deal with the EU
All of which are wrong, as I've said repeatedly for the last few weeks.
3) It also assumes Number 10 really, really care about getting a US deal, to the extent of allowing it to become the overriding driver of policy. I don't buy that at all, they're mainly driven by domestic policy.
The outcome of the UK-EU negotiations does ultimately come down to a political decision Number 10 needs to make but I just don't buy the idea that said decision will be swung by events in the US.
