I hear a lot of people from the left straight-up denying *any* possibility of election fraud. This is frustratingly naive.

OF COURSE fraud happens (and honest mistakes happen too).

[1/12]
Some people vote twice somehow. Ballots get lost or thrown away. An envelope falls behind a filing cabinet. People send in a fraudulent ballot in someone else's name.

But here's the thing:

[2/12]
It's not a binary question of "Did election fraud happen, Y/N?" where if Yes, then the election is illegitimate. U.S. democratic institutions are designed to be robust and resilient against fraud, because it's a GIVEN that some amount of voter fraud *will* take place.

[3/12]
The right question to ask is, "How wide are the margins of victory, and is there evidence of a substantial enough volume of fraud that it was a determining factor in the outcome?"

[4/12]
The media has an incentive to play up dramatic circumstances, build a narrative, and portray an exciting, narrow race. But this election is not nearly as close as it might seem to someone who's been watching the talking heads on mainstream news for the past 3 days.

[5/12]
It's increasingly clear that when all is said and done, Biden will have very soundly defeated Trump in enough states that the outcome is well beyond dispute. Look at the facts and numbers, and the margins of victory in key states.

[6/12]
Anyone saying that fraud was a determining factor in the final outcome is making an EXTRAORDINARY claim that there was well-coordinated, large-scale election fraud in *multiple states* which was executed flawlessly...

[7/12]
...in the presence of election officials from both parties, without leaving a shred of substantial evidence in its wake.

Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.

[8/12]
Believing that fraud swayed the outcome of this election constitutes belief in a masterfully orchestrated conspiracy of unprecedented magnitude.

[9/12]
If you believe that Joe Biden would not have won this election apart from election fraud, then I consider your reasoning capabilities to be comparable to those of the conspiracy theorists who deny the moon landing or believe the earth is flat.

[10/12]
TL;DR - Election fraud is real. It's stupid and naive to claim that elections are perfectly secure & fraud doesn't happen.

But, it would require an ENORMOUS amount of highly unlikely large-scale fraud to sway this election. There's not enough evidence to believe that.

[11/12]
Final note -
I will gladly (and quickly) update my beliefs if/when evidence comes to light re: massive widespread election fraud. I publicly commit to believing and trusting facts, evidence, and reliable statistics.

[12/12]
You can follow @BenRatkey.
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