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This chart from the FT's graphics team intrigued me. It shows that March/April was unusually late for a viral infection causing excess deaths and that September/October is unusually early for viral hospital admissions. A hospital doctor calmly explained all is OK. Here's why. https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1322257653414924288
Covid arrived late from elsewhere in the Northern Hemisphere. We didn't know how to treat it and some people with covid or other conditions were not given adequate or appropriate care. Covid spread fast reaching high susceptible people quickly. People died. That happens.
Existing problems...underlying health inequalities and NHS capacity were compounded by a disease we did not know how to detect or treat. 50k excess deaths not bad. [See my analysis of PHE data as to how many were 'with covid' and how many down to how patients were handled.]
The current spike is a spike in people who have 'passed' the PCR test. This indicates a very low level of infection most of which would not normally be regarded as 'cases.' This is partly a spike in tests + return to colder weather.
The current spike may also be due to people with non-covid ailments who just happen to have a tiny bit of covid in them. Hospital Doctor reassured us, saying we know how to treat covid now.
There may also be some additional hospitalisation and excess deaths (as predicted) due to people not getting adequate care for other problems earlier in the year. Some people were too scared to see a Doctor.
Conclusion...
- it's not as bad or the same as it was earlier in the year
- if people with other conditions don't get adequate treatment there could be excess deaths
- more deaths could be inevitable
- if we use the PCR test definition there will be more deaths with covid
- it's not as bad or the same as it was earlier in the year
- if people with other conditions don't get adequate treatment there could be excess deaths
- more deaths could be inevitable
- if we use the PCR test definition there will be more deaths with covid
Solution...
- a more balanced discussion
- which tackles public health
- and NHS capacity/effectiveness
- especially if lockdown makes people less healthy.
N.B. these conclusions drawn from multiple sources.
Be healthy.
- a more balanced discussion
- which tackles public health
- and NHS capacity/effectiveness
- especially if lockdown makes people less healthy.
N.B. these conclusions drawn from multiple sources.
Be healthy.
