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The northern city of Bergamo became a symbol of Italy’s Covid-19 tragedy in the spring. Hospitals ran out of beds for patients, and army trucks were deployed to carry coffins from inundates morgues.
Now, the city is being spared. What's going on? THREAD https://www.wsj.com/articles/bergamo-symbol-of-italys-covid-19-tragedy-in-spring-fares-better-now-11604671200
Now, the city is being spared. What's going on? THREAD https://www.wsj.com/articles/bergamo-symbol-of-italys-covid-19-tragedy-in-spring-fares-better-now-11604671200
We’ve been keeping a close eye on Bergamo since March, when the virus killed around 5,000 people there, five times higher than the norm. My colleague @MMQWalker visited the city’s main hospital at the time and was shocked by what he saw: https://www.wsj.com/articles/every-day-you-lose-the-contagion-gets-worse-lessons-from-italys-hospital-meltdown-11584455470
Now, the infection rate in Bergamo is surprisingly low. It is reporting around 21 new cases a day for every 100,000 residents, compared with 103 in nearby Milan and 43 across Italy on average. It could be down to luck. But there is a more tantalizing explanation...
Public-health experts told me it’s possible that Bergamo is benefiting from a degree of immunity. An antibody survey concluded that 38.5% of Bergamo’s population had been infected by the virus in the spring, among the highest levels anywhere in the world. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/ebiom/article/PIIS2352-3964(20)30445-X/fulltext
That’s not enough to achieve herd immunity. Scientists say that around 60% of a given population would need to be immune to protect the broader community. But even a lower level of immunity could slow down contagion. Read more here via @wsj_douglasj https://www.wsj.com/articles/study-shows-covid-19-antibodies-waning-over-time-suggesting-immunity-may-wear-off-11603757012
“We are very far from achieving herd immunity. But in areas that experienced a high frequency of infections, there are probably enough antibodies to limit the circulation of the virus,” Giuseppe Remuzzi from @MarioNegriIRCCS, which carried out the antibody survey, told me.
Many experts warn against allowing the virus to circulate freely among communities to achieve a degree of immunity, saying that the cost on human life would be extraordinary – as it has been for Bergamo. We wrote about the city’s hidden death toll here: https://www.wsj.com/articles/italys-coronavirus-death-toll-is-far-higher-than-reported-11585767179
It’s not just about antibodies. “Having been so touched by grief, people here are zealous about following the rules,” said Claudio Cancelli, the mayor of Nembro, a town outside Bergamo where the virus killed around 1.3% of the population. “But the price to pay has been too high.”
