Read on Twitter
A few updates on the potential votes left to count in North Carolina, as of new data 11/6 AM.
We're now looking at a *maximum ceiling* of 171,000 potential uncounted votes.
To see how that breaks down, let's get into the math! #ncpol
We're now looking at a *maximum ceiling* of 171,000 potential uncounted votes.
To see how that breaks down, let's get into the math! #ncpol
Outstanding mail-in ballot requests now down to ~98,000. As expected, it's ticked down over the last few days as ballots arrive. But:
- Many ballots may never be returned/returned on time
- This doesn't account for voters who changed their minds and voted on Election Day.
- Many ballots may never be returned/returned on time
- This doesn't account for voters who changed their minds and voted on Election Day.
County Election Boards have so far received ~32,000 accepted mail-in ballots since Election Day. But those ballots have not yet been included in the state's unofficial results. https://er.ncsbe.gov/?election_dt=11/03/2020&county_id=0&office=FED&contest=0
They need to be approved by county boards in open meetings first.
They need to be approved by county boards in open meetings first.
Most of the 100 county boards in NC will wait until Nov. 12 (the deadline) to meet and count/tally these ballots. But some, like Mecklenburg County, start doing that today.
Next up: provisional ballots, which voters cast if there are problems at the polls. The state reported yesterday there are about 41,000 of those.
Not all will be counted though. In 2016, just over half were NOT counted. Will that proportion hold in 2020?
Not all will be counted though. In 2016, just over half were NOT counted. Will that proportion hold in 2020?
So taken together:
As of Friday (11/6), 6 a.m.
~ 98,000 outstanding mail-in ballots
~ 32,000 "untallied", accepted by mail since Election Day
~ 41,000 provisional (as of Thursday)
--------
171,000 total
As of Friday (11/6), 6 a.m.
~ 98,000 outstanding mail-in ballots
~ 32,000 "untallied", accepted by mail since Election Day
~ 41,000 provisional (as of Thursday)
--------
171,000 total
But that 171k figure is -- and I cannot stress this enough -- an *absolute maximum* of potential uncounted ballots.
The real figure is likely to fall far short for the caveats noted above.
The real figure is likely to fall far short for the caveats noted above.
Worth watching over the next few days how many mail-in ballots (postmarked by Election Day) come in through Nov. 12.
The story so far:
ballot_rtn_dt Accepted
------------- | -------
11/03/2020 | 21,573
11/04/2020 | 5,545
11/05/2020 | 4,750
The story so far:
ballot_rtn_dt Accepted
------------- | -------
11/03/2020 | 21,573
11/04/2020 | 5,545
11/05/2020 | 4,750
My hunch is that Election Day was likely to be a high point, but we'll have to wait and see what the long tail of these ballots' arrival actually is through Nov. 12.
