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It’s #JobsDay. This is a snapshot of the economy the next president will inherit. 0/
October was the 8th month of the COVID crisis in the U.S. labor market. We added 638,000 jobs in October, but the labor market remains in crisis—we lost so many jobs in the spring that we are still 10.1 million jobs below where we were in Feb. 1/
And during the Oct reference week, nearly 100,000 jobs—99,490—were temporary jobs related to the decennial census that will disappear in the next few months. Not counting temporary census jobs, our jobs deficit is now 10.2 million jobs. 2/ https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/newsroom/press-kits/2020/2020-census-weekly-hires.pdf
Further, in the year before the recession, we added 194,000 jobs per month on average, so from Feb-Oct, we should have added around 1.6 million jobs. That means the total gap in the labor market right now is on the order of 11.7 million jobs. 3/
And we are adding fewer jobs each month. Slowing job growth is problematic when you are 11.7 million jobs in the hole. *This* is not the shape of recovery we want to be seeing right now. 4/
Crucial policies for boosting the economy are fiscal aid to state and local governments and extending the unemployment insurance (UI) provisions of the CARES Act. These actions alone could create or save many millions of jobs. 5/ https://www.epi.org/blog/without-federal-aid-to-state-and-local-governments-5-3-million-workers-will-likely-lose-their-jobs-by-the-end-of-2021-see-estimated-job-losses-by-state/ https://www.epi.org/blog/cutting-ui-benefits-by-400-per-week-will-significantly-harm-u-s-families-jobs-and-growth-3-4-million-fewer-jobs-will-be-created-over-the-next-year-as-a-result/
W/o congressional action, all remaining pandemic UI programs will expire on Dec 26th. Millions of workers are depending on these programs (DOL reports 13.3 mil for the wk ending Oct 17). When they expire, millions of these workers & their families will be financially ruined. 6/
The House passed a $2.2 trillion relief package, but McConnell adjourned the Senate last week with no COVID relief—knowing full well that millions would see their benefits disappear the day after Christmas. 7/
The unemployment rate declined in October, which is great news, but, at 6.9%, it’s still in recessionary territory (it’s higher than the unemployment rate ever got in the early 2000s recession). And, the unemployment rate is not counting all coronavirus-related job losses. 8/
In October, there were 11.1 million workers who were officially unemployed. But there were an additional 0.6 million workers who were temporarily unemployed but who were being misclassified as “employed not a work.” 9/
The labor force participation rate rose in October, but there were still 4.5 million workers who were out of work as a result of the virus but who were being counted as having dropped out of the labor force because they weren’t actively seeking work. 10/
And there are at least another 2.5 million who are unemployed but are not being counted as unemployed because CPS survey nonresponse is nonrandom, and nonresponders are more likely than the general population to be unemployed. 11/ https://econweb.ucsd.edu/~jhamilto/AH2.pdf https://www.rand.org/pubs/working_papers/WRA842-1.html
That’s 18.7 million workers who were either officially unemployed or otherwise out of work as a result of the virus in October. If all these workers were taken into account, the unemployment rate would have been 11.1% in October. 12/
There are also 7.0 million workers who are employed but have seen a drop in hours and pay as a result of the virus. 13/ https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/covid19-table5.xlsx
So altogether, 18.7 million workers are either officially unemployed or otherwise out of work because of the virus, and another 7.0 million are employed but have seen a drop in hours and pay, for a total of 25.7 million workers directly hurt by the COVID recession. 14/
That is more than 15% of the workforce—and it doesn’t count those who lost a job or hours earlier in the pandemic but are back to work now. The cumulative count of those harmed would be much greater. 15/
The 25.7 million also ignores the fact that even workers who are employed and haven't had their hours cut are hurt by the downturn. When job openings are scarce, workers’ leverage dissolves. Employers don’t have to pay well when they know workers don’t have outside options. 16/
Another grim finding is that we are down 1.3 million state and local government jobs over the last 8 months—most of it (more than 1.0 million) in education. THIS IS A MINDBOGGLING UNFORCED ERROR. Senate Republicans could fix this immediately with aid to state & local govts. 17/
A reminder that it is absolutely not true that "everyone" is working from home—only 21.2% of employed people report having teleworked or worked at home in the last 4 weeks. That's less than one in four workers! 18/ https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/covid19-table1.xlsx
Also, the decline in unemp in Oct came almost entirely from those who had been temporarily laid off. The number of workers who had been permanently laid off (or completed temp jobs) ticked up, from 4.50 mil to 4.51 mil. This does not bode well for the pace of the recovery. 19/
October was the 8th month of the COVID crisis, which means long-term unemployment (unemployment lasting more than six months) is now spiking. In the last two months alone there was an increase of almost 2 million long-term unemployed workers. 20/
Earlier in this thread I mentioned that there were 4.5 million people who have dropped out of the labor force as a result of the virus. Of that, 2.6 million—or 58%—are women. Women’s unemployment rate has improved more than men’s but their LFPR has improved much less. 21/
The recovery remains highly racially inequitable. The white unemployment rate is 6%, the Latinx unemployment rate is 8.8%, and the Black unemployment rate is 10.8%. 22/
Our history and present of structural racism dramatically affect the labor market. B/c of things like occupational segregation, discrimination, & other disparities rooted in white supremacy, this crisis is hitting Black and Brown workers far harder than white workers. 23/
How do the Oct jobs numbers square with Oct unemployment insurance (UI) claims? The UI data say that during the week ending Oct 17 (the reference week for the jobs data), there were 21.5 million workers claiming unemployment benefits in all programs. 24/ https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf
That is higher than the 18.7 million workers (calculated earlier in this thread) who are either officially unemployed or otherwise out of work because of the virus. What gives? 25/
For one, the 21.5 million is an overestimate of the number of people claiming UI for a few reasons. This blog post has more on that. 26/ https://www.epi.org/blog/heading-into-election-day-at-least-30-million-workers-are-being-hurt-by-the-coronavirus-recession/
Also, some people with jobs who have reduced earnings are on “partial” UI. As described earlier in this thread, there are 7.0 million workers who are employed but have seen a drop in hours and pay due to COVID. That also explains some of the difference. 27/
This blog post includes a few of the key calculations from this thread, in case useful. n/ https://www.epi.org/blog/what-the-next-president-inherits-more-than-25-million-workers-are-being-hurt-by-the-coronavirus-downturn/
