I had a strange realization this morning. Most autocratic regimes don't fall until those keeping them in power (military, secret police) decide it's not going down with them. In East Germany, it was the Stasi melting away in 1989 in the face of massive protests. 1/n

In Romania in 1990, Nicolae Ceaușescu went down after the military turned on him and the Securitate stepped aside.

In the U.S., Republicans, of all people, don't appear to be willing to go that last extra mile to keep Trump in power. 2/n

The GOP has the Supreme court. They still have most state houses before redistricting. They're confident they will hold on to the Senate, and effectively cripple Biden during his single term in office (hearing he's unlikely to run for a second)

They don't need him anymore. 3/n

Behind closed doors, they recognize he's unfit, and a fool. Trump, for his part, is a bully who insults and threatens his way through the GOP to obtain compliance. Some may remember what he said about Cruz, Rubio, and Graham in 2016. How he treated McSally. 4/n

Despite calls for state legislatures to interfere in the election, we're not seeing them pick up the torch.

The GOP establishment he tried to destroy seems to be turning on him, and willing to step aside the way the Stasi and Securitate did to let history carry him away. 5/n

What remains to be seen is how this affects the GOP long term. Already, they appear as though they will go on and pretend none of this ever happened, and treat Biden like Obama's third term. (Stonewalling, obstruction, lying and obfuscating about it). 6/n

The base however... can they reclaim the base? It was a monster they made that ended up escaping in 2012 and running amok, 2016-2020 being the apotheosis of its rampage.

Now, Trump's camp is already running with a "stab in the back" narrative. 7/n

Hannity, Carlson, Levin, Limbaugh are all preaching the "election fraud" conspiracy gospel. Surrogates like Gingrich and Bannon are demanding all out war (like, beheadings of their enemies).

And white evangelicals and the Tea Party-types still love Trump. 8/n

Thus, the mid-term result may be that the GOP fractures again along the Trumpist / establishment fault line again that created the Tea Party in the first place. Trump, and Don Jr., will still be out there assailing those who stepped aside. 9/n

I suspect that by 2022, if Trump is forced out of office (and isn't in jail), that he and his acolytes will be stirring up trouble in the primaries by endorsing radicals and QAnon cranks. 10/n

In 2024, I could easily see his camp whipping up sentiment against the Cotton or Hawley if either is the frot runner or nominee.

McCain and Romney taught us Republicans don't win the Presidency without their support. 11/n

If Trump and his kids cut off support for the GOP nominee in 2024 at the knees with evangelicals by excoriating them for not doing everything they could to save Trump's presidency, it likely costs them just enough votes to lose in 2024. 12/n

This election showed that the GOP base is still capable of keeping the party competitive, or winning, in a high polarization and high turn out environment.

Trump is in a position potentially play the role of spoiler going forward. 13/n

We know he's petty, vindictive, and holds a grudge unless someone really sucks up to him (Graham, Rubio, Cruz). He's not loyal to anyone.

Thus, it seems likely he will continue to lash out at, and rail against anyone he believes betrayed him. 14/n

Fox personalities and OAN appear ready to continue carrying this narrative forward. The only question is who they would choose in a grudge match between Trump, Cotton, and Hawley.

Nevertheless, the GOP's future is darker than might appear on the surface. 15/n