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Important thread on current #Brexit state-of-play, drawing on insights from Barnier briefing to EU27 permreps.
If indeed true that PM Johnson is holding out for some final horse-trading on 30 (!!!) issues, it tells us a number of things.
/1 https://twitter.com/nickgutteridge/status/1324635809954279424
If indeed true that PM Johnson is holding out for some final horse-trading on 30 (!!!) issues, it tells us a number of things.
/1 https://twitter.com/nickgutteridge/status/1324635809954279424
1) besides LPF/ Governance/ Fish, there are many more areas where positions between the EU & UK diverge. Or where things may be back in play.
e.g. think of aviation or energy, which have recently been linked to LPF & Fish.
So, the talks seem to have been going backwards.
/2
e.g. think of aviation or energy, which have recently been linked to LPF & Fish.
So, the talks seem to have been going backwards.
/2
2) UK is deluded if it thinks EU27 leaders will convene for an 11th hour summit-style negotiation (think, Cameron's renegotiation). And it is deluded if it thinks it could get a deal this way. (EU27 wd not be able to agree amongst themselves). Hence, Barnier's crucial role.
/3
/3
3) the UK is equally deluded if -- given the point above -- it thinks EU27 wd agree to VDL & Merkel (???) taking over from Barnier to horse-trade with Boris Johnson.
('Merkel taking over the talks' is a Brexiteer-fantasy that just won't die)
Esp. with 30 issues outstanding.
/4
('Merkel taking over the talks' is a Brexiteer-fantasy that just won't die)
Esp. with 30 issues outstanding.
/4
Crucial difference betw the Varadkar/ Johnson talks and today?
Then, "only" the NI border had to be resolved.
There is no bilateral, leader-to-leader conversation that can resolve 30 outstanding issues at the last minute, let alone issues that are "horizontal" for whole EU.
/5
Then, "only" the NI border had to be resolved.
There is no bilateral, leader-to-leader conversation that can resolve 30 outstanding issues at the last minute, let alone issues that are "horizontal" for whole EU.
/5
Hence @MichelBarnier's continuing crucial role & unquestioned support for him from the 27 (leaving aside issue that the EU27 is spending less time on Brexit than before).
Is there a role for a "leader's intervention"? Yes, perhaps on LPF, or on fish.
But not on 30 issues.
/6
Is there a role for a "leader's intervention"? Yes, perhaps on LPF, or on fish.
But not on 30 issues.
/6
3 weeks ago, UK asked for a "fundamental change of approach" from the EU.
It is now time for the EU27 to ask the same of the UK.
There is no use in continuing talks if UK is holding out to bargain on 30 issues and wants leaders to step in.
It's pretty gloomy, I'd say.
/n
It is now time for the EU27 to ask the same of the UK.
There is no use in continuing talks if UK is holding out to bargain on 30 issues and wants leaders to step in.
It's pretty gloomy, I'd say.
/n
