In the face of the EV mania (bubble) I'd like to give my thoughts as someone working in the automotive industry and being competely stunned by the common misconception of the industry outlook. A thread... 1/
$TSLA $NIO $XPEV $FSR $NKLA $LI

2/ The size of the automotive market is not a function of the powertrain technology, but solely a function of the demand of people for individual transport.
The switch towards EV's does neither increase the TAM nore does it increase the purchasing power of potential customers

3/ As a result, the potential revenue for the global market won't change at all despite the common growth due to growing purchasing power of third world countries.

4/ In fact, with the growing green political movement all over the world, the market is even more likely to shrink from 2030 on, or even earlier. Because individual transport is never the solution for a greener planet and regardless of the technology environmentally unfriendly.

5/ The automotive market is and will always be a highly capital intensive and low margin business. There will never be a monopoly situation like in the digital economy which would enable astronomical margins.

6/ New market participants are growing into an existing market, all market participants are just forced to switch to EV. The idea of a completely new market with new revenue streams is just false and a made up story by wall street to pump stocks.

7/ No doubt there will be existing OEMs that will vanish and new one's that will enter the market. But that has always been the case. The total market cap of the auto industry will, in the long term, not grow due to the tech switch. It's an insane and lazy consumption.

8/ It is even more likely that the total market cap of OEMs will shrink due to even lower margins. Make no mistake, batteries are already a commodity and electric motors are more trivial than ICEs.

9/ Furthermore, it is not hard for an OEM to show huge growth if you're currently selling a couple of thousand cars a month. How ignorant are the market partizipants to not realize that. The EV market will saturate in the same way as the ICE market did.

10/ The bubble will bust, there's no doubt. Only question is when. I give it a maximum of 5 years. Trade carefully.