The updated SPI-M slides - a short thread on what's changed.

On 31 September, in a hastily arranged press conference, the Chief Scientific Adviser presented these two slides, showing projections for hospital admissions and deaths.

These were subsequently revised
The updated SPI-M slides - a short thread on what's changed.On 31 September, in a hastily arranged press conference, the Chief Scientific Adviser presented these two slides, showing projections for hospital admissions and deaths.These were subsequently revised
The updated SPI-M slides - a short thread on what's changed.On 31 September, in a hastily arranged press conference, the Chief Scientific Adviser presented these two slides, showing projections for hospital admissions and deaths.These were subsequently revised
The first slide shows a *projection* for hopsital admissions. On the left, the oringial slide, on the right, the amended slide.

These slides present a *range* of the projection (the shaded blue area), and a central projection (the dark blue line).
The first slide shows a *projection* for hopsital admissions. On the left, the oringial slide, on the right, the amended slide.These slides present a *range* of the projection (the shaded blue area), and a central projection (the dark blue line).
The first slide shows a *projection* for hopsital admissions. On the left, the oringial slide, on the right, the amended slide.These slides present a *range* of the projection (the shaded blue area), and a central projection (the dark blue line).
The upper level for the range of the projection has changed but *the central projection* (the dark blue line) *has not changed*
Same thing for deaths. On the left, the original slide, on the right, the revised slide. Similarly, the upper range has narrowed but *the central projection has not changed*

And remember, sadly deaths lag hospitalizations.
Same thing for deaths. On the left, the original slide, on the right, the revised slide. Similarly, the upper range has narrowed but *the central projection has not changed*And remember, sadly deaths lag hospitalizations.
Same thing for deaths. On the left, the original slide, on the right, the revised slide. Similarly, the upper range has narrowed but *the central projection has not changed*And remember, sadly deaths lag hospitalizations.
Here's a link to the story in the papers - it's bright yellow, so shows up more than the graphs used in the press conference.

Also, the headline 'Covid charts were wrong and death toll *will not* surpass first wave' is a strong statement. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/11/05/covid-graphs-wrong-death-toll-will-not-surpass-first-wave/
Exclusive: 'Covid graphs were wrong and death toll will not surpass first wave'

Government forced to reissue key charts used to justify second lockdown after admitting projected fatalities were overstated

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/11/05/covid-graphs-wrong-death-toll-will-not-surpass-first-wave/
(* the press conference was on 31 October, not 31 September(!))

Slides here: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/slides-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conference-31-october-2020
Slides to accompany coronavirus press conference: 31 October 2020

Slides on coronavirus presented by Professor Chris Whitty and Sir Patrick Vallance.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/slides-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conference-31-october-2020
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