Read on Twitter
SIMPLE GUIDE TO US ELECTIONS
As we draw to the end of the counting process of #Elections2020
, here are a few pointers that could set the premise for a less excitable 2024.
1. It's a 2 horse race. But there are minor players. The last time a 3rd candidate made an impact was
+
As we draw to the end of the counting process of #Elections2020
, here are a few pointers that could set the premise for a less excitable 2024.1. It's a 2 horse race. But there are minor players. The last time a 3rd candidate made an impact was
+
in 1992, when Independent Ross Perot polled approx. 19% of popular votes, but failed to win any state. And then Ralph Nader of Green Party queered the pitch for Gore in Florida by winning 3% of the popular votes there.
2. Electoral College Votes: each state is assigned a number
+
2. Electoral College Votes: each state is assigned a number
+
a number of electoral votes that add up to 538 nationally. Anyone who gets to 270, wins it. In the event of an unlikely tie, you go to the house of reps. But this is academic.
3. Winner takes All: except Nebraska & Maine, every state follows it. So if Candidate A gets 50.01%,
+
3. Winner takes All: except Nebraska & Maine, every state follows it. So if Candidate A gets 50.01%,
+
he wins all the electoral votes assigned to that state. Doesn't matter if the margin is just 1 vote. Maine & Nebraska follow proportional representation.
So it might happen that A gets 51% of the popular votes, nationally, yet not make it to 270. Happened in 2000 & 2016.
+
So it might happen that A gets 51% of the popular votes, nationally, yet not make it to 270. Happened in 2000 & 2016.
+
4. Critical States /Battleground states. When candidates start working out strategies to reach the magic 270, each of them start off with approx. 200 seats in their kitty. So the battle is effectively for 138. Why do they do so? Because these 200 seats each are bastions.
+
+
Eg: California, NY, NJ, most on the coast are traditionally blue. So Trump wouldn't waste his time there. Most of middle America, the heartland & Southern states are solid Reds. Texas, Arkansas. So the candidates focus on the states that are up for grabs. Florida is always
+
+
in the mix. Dems made a play for Texas. But it flatters to deceive, mostly. So the battle ground states get more airtime. California with 55 seats isn't mentioned as much.
5. Other factors:
More mixed, cosmopolitan & urban the areas, more they lean towards Dems.
+
5. Other factors:
More mixed, cosmopolitan & urban the areas, more they lean towards Dems.
+
Suburbia, semi rural/ rural, American heartland, farming/ small business communities, predominantly white areas are Red Territory.
6. Voting: early voting, postal, absentee & election day. This time, there was vote by mail. Voting is by ballots. Each state has its own ballot.
+
6. Voting: early voting, postal, absentee & election day. This time, there was vote by mail. Voting is by ballots. Each state has its own ballot.
+
"Vote by mail" got added this time. Republicans vote more on the election day than the Dems.
7. Counting: Each state has its own mechanism & sequence. Ohio counted mail votes first. Biden was leading. Then as election day votes started coming in, Trump took the lead & won.
+
7. Counting: Each state has its own mechanism & sequence. Ohio counted mail votes first. Biden was leading. Then as election day votes started coming in, Trump took the lead & won.
+
Just the opposite is happening in GA & PA.
WHY THE HELL IS IT TAKING SO LONG?!?!
It's not.
1. Go back to our pre EVM days. It took a week for the final results.
2. Because it's so close, the networks are not CALLING THE ELECTIONS as they normally do. They're waiting for all
+
WHY THE HELL IS IT TAKING SO LONG?!?!
It's not.
1. Go back to our pre EVM days. It took a week for the final results.
2. Because it's so close, the networks are not CALLING THE ELECTIONS as they normally do. They're waiting for all
+
the votes to be counted. This is normal.
Is the system perfect? No system is. But it works for them. It's free of govt interference. It's transparent.
And, the counting is done by volunteers, drawn from all walks of life, ideology.
Time to get back to my backyard.
Is the system perfect? No system is. But it works for them. It's free of govt interference. It's transparent.
And, the counting is done by volunteers, drawn from all walks of life, ideology.
Time to get back to my backyard.
