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As we wait on Pennsylvania, one interesting development to take a look at in the returns: Trump didn't get the share of vote he needed in a lot of the so-called "T," the conservative middle of the state where his campaign has long since planned to run up the score
Take Northumberland County, just north of Dauphin. Trump received ~70% of the vote there in '16, w/Clinton at ~26%.
In '20, per returns, Trump now 68.4%, with Biden at 29.9 (totals not necessarily final). That's a bigger than ~5-point shift
In '20, per returns, Trump now 68.4%, with Biden at 29.9 (totals not necessarily final). That's a bigger than ~5-point shift
TBC, Trump has already received more than 4,000 votes over his '16 total. His raw vote margin over Biden expanded by more than a thousand votes.
But the plan was for Trump to increase both his share and his total vote out or exurbs/rural areas. Instead vote surged everywhere
But the plan was for Trump to increase both his share and his total vote out or exurbs/rural areas. Instead vote surged everywhere
So any gains for Trump in a place like Northumberland were negated in the suburbs or cities.
Wasn't just Northumberland, either. Most counties in the area showed at least a small decline in Trump's share of the vote, or at least the margins were even over '16
Wasn't just Northumberland, either. Most counties in the area showed at least a small decline in Trump's share of the vote, or at least the margins were even over '16
In many ways the margins were saw in the 'T' were exactly what Dems had dreamed of when the race started, that they could make real cuts into Trump's margins there (the AmBridge crew in my @s testifying to that now). In a lot of areas, it didn't seem to work out
I mean, go look at Ohio. Look at how Trump not only avoided losses to his margins but *grew them.* I was on the phone w/a Democrat Tuesday night looking at those returns, and they were despondent about Biden's chances in Pennsylvania because of them
But ... a very different story played out in Northumberland, Lycoming, Schuylkill and Montour County (~7-point swing in Biden's favor since '16!!).
Why did this happen? I have no idea! But it does seem like one very early takeaway from this election is ...
Why did this happen? I have no idea! But it does seem like one very early takeaway from this election is ...
... treating voter blocs as monolith can lead to a lot of faulty assumptions. Was a particular problem with voters of color, especially Latinos but also African-Americans. Seems as if it's a problem with mostly white rural voters this year, too
