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There are 133,280 absentees accepted and remaining early votes to be counted in Alaska. 1,997 absentees were added to this tally yesterday.
I've updated the interactive, adding a few maps. The main map now excludes the 36,268 early votes already counted https://cinycmaps.com/index.php/state-maps/ak/ak-2020-ge/15-alaska/76-alaska-absentee-early-question-vote-tracker-by-hd
I've updated the interactive, adding a few maps. The main map now excludes the 36,268 early votes already counted https://cinycmaps.com/index.php/state-maps/ak/ak-2020-ge/15-alaska/76-alaska-absentee-early-question-vote-tracker-by-hd
Absentees accepted = partially or fully accepted. There also are 950 questioned votes.
Here's the 3D spinning map of all of the remaining non-question votes. While the heavy D Juneau HDs and South Anchorage/Girdwood HD 28 lead in this metric early on, heavy R districts have...
Here's the 3D spinning map of all of the remaining non-question votes. While the heavy D Juneau HDs and South Anchorage/Girdwood HD 28 lead in this metric early on, heavy R districts have...
...caught up. Eagle River 14, Wrangell-Petersburg-Sitka 35, Kenai 31 & 33, Anchorage 21, 24, 26 & 27, and Mat-Su-Valdez 9 also all have over 4,000 remaining votes to be counted.
The rural, heavily Alaska Native HDs 37-40 lag most, with 1,020 or fewer.
The rural, heavily Alaska Native HDs 37-40 lag most, with 1,020 or fewer.
Not all of the remaining vote is created equal. As the 3D spinning map below shows, the 16,963 remaining Early Votes. Heavy R Mat-Su HDs 7 & 9 have over 1,000 votes remaining, along with D-leaning Suburban Juneau HD 34.
The early vote so far has been about even in the Senate race. However, what's remaining is likely more R than the early vote that has been counted. By how much depends on how you estimate it. By registration, it is about 1 point more R and a point less D. However...
...Alaska has a lot of registered indpendents, so that likely doesn't fully capture it.
Estimating based on the election day vote plus the average increase in districts with >100 EVs would lead to these votes breaking Sullivan by ~4.5 points.
Estimating based on the election day vote plus the average increase in districts with >100 EVs would lead to these votes breaking Sullivan by ~4.5 points.
Another estimate, using the current early vote PCT for districts with >100EVs and the adjusted election day vote for those with <100EVs would increase Sullivan's margin on the uncounted EVs to 6.1 points.
Note Sullivan had a .2 point lead in the counted EVs, so one could project the 2.5/6.1 on top of that to 2.7/6.3.
Anyway, that leaves 116,317 absentees to be counted.
But not even all absentees are created equal. Most are mail-in absentees. But a significant portion are...
Anyway, that leaves 116,317 absentees to be counted.
But not even all absentees are created equal. Most are mail-in absentees. But a significant portion are...
...in-person absentees, which are pretty much early votes by another name. As of today, there are 17,024 of these votes. Because a lot of these came from heavy R areas, like the Kenai Peninsula, these also skew about 2 points more R in registration, leading to similar numbers.
Let's conservatively assume these votes break 2.5 points better than the current early votes - 50.1%, Sullivan 47.7% Gross, 2.2% Howe. That would net Sullivan an additional 827 votes, padding his lead to 58,443 votes.
I have no clue how the remaining 99,232 real absentees might break. But I can estimate what Gross would need to take out of them to win. If (very conservatively) the third-party candidate takes 5.5%, Gross would need to win these by 58.9 points, 76.7% to 17.8%.
Even if there are, as the Gross campaign estimates, about 120,375 remaining, he'd need 71.5% to Sullivan's 23%. And if the third party candidate's share is closer to the current EV - around 2.4%, Gross needs 78.2%. (100K) or 73.1% (120K) to win.
Twitter doesn't allow us to make projections. But the math is the math.
Put another way - how likely is it that a Republican in AK gets less than a quarter of any type of vote?
FYI - @JMilesColeman @SenhorRaposa @WillMuldoon @thc1972 @AK_OK @xxxneonslavexxx @Wizard_Predicts @ElectionBabe
FYI - @JMilesColeman @SenhorRaposa @WillMuldoon @thc1972 @AK_OK @xxxneonslavexxx @Wizard_Predicts @ElectionBabe
