1/ NEW: In PA, Trump leads Biden by 90k votes with 326k ballots left. Biden, as expected, has done better in mail-in votes. Trump has been critical of them and his supporters have been far less likely to use them. So what are the odds of success for each candidate there?
2/ Biden has been winning PA mail ballots by an average of 78-22. If he continues at that pace, he'll get ~255k votes to Trump's ~70k, gain 180k+ votes and win the state by ~90k votes. If Biden slips to 70%, he would still win by ~40k votes... The make or break figure is ~65%...
3/ At ~65%, Biden wins PA & the presidency, pending the inevitable court battles. Conversely, at ~35%, Trump holds PA. Using round numbers b/c figures are changing constantly. Again, Biden has averaged 78%. But past performance isn't a guarantee, especially as #'s get small...
4/ The distribution of where the votes are starts to loom much larger - are they in red or blue counties. I'll try to take a look when I have a free minute but working on a story foer tonight also. Wanted to share this so you know what to look for too.
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