Read on Twitter
1. There's an uncomfortable pause in my int w @JulieOliverTX, @wendydavis, and @SiegelForTexas- 3 candidates for the House in TX who had great odds for flipping seats this cycle until they ran into the brick wall that is the @DCCC's Red to Blue program https://tinyurl.com/y2697uoa
2. Under the leadership of @CheriBustos the program has failed to adapt to an environment in which Ds are winning in places w high levels of college edu and/or diversity & losing otherwise. The 2020 class has already been scrubbed from the site, https://web.archive.org/web/20200817032035/https://redtoblue.dccc.org/
3. but they'll live on forever on the wayback machine's archive. The 2018 class was one thing, but when I saw that the 2020 class was not being driven by realignment analytics exposed by my forecasting work, frankly, I was shocked. Even though the DCCC hadn't reached out to me,
4. I expected the success of the model in identifying places of competition so far out & the extent of D electoral robustness in places like OC in CA had to have the DCCC looking at my demo indicators instead of the same old tired formula for identifying the competition.
5. One glance at the class of 2020- ESP the OG class which didn't feature half the candidates you see here, & I knew that was not the case. There is a MASSIVE entropy within the Dem Party's organizations where they are dialing it in in terms of their messaging and electioneering.
6. My guess is some of this is driven by protecting the jobs & contracts of long term consultants and vendors. If @SpeakerPelosi values that speaker's gavel she should be interested in helping to get the Biden team to push for a MASSIVE overhaul of the DNC/DCCC/DSCCC when he
7. comes in. Otherwise, 2022 will be a bloodbath for Ds electorally. No one in charge of strategy of the Ds 2020 congressional work should be retained for that purpose going forward. It is time to embrace the methodologies & strategic approaches being advocated for by people like
8. @stephanievalenc, @benwikler, @tbonier, @ChuckRocha, and others. The way moderate messaging is done must be overhauled and a comms shop established to counterbalance the Right's media ecosystem. Hoping this is going to happen.
Meant to say- that uncomfortable pause came when I asked, after finding out none of the TX campaigns were doing door contacts, if they were worried that they'd lose bc of it.
And then I spent the next few weeks urging campaigns in TX & across the country to knock doors!!
And then I spent the next few weeks urging campaigns in TX & across the country to knock doors!!
I should also add that in May, I presented the case about turnout & negative partisanship & this election to Bustos' aide but did not receive any follow-up. To her defense, she no doubt heard from other highly credible people, with much more relevant resumes than mine (direct
campaign work) that my theories are stupid, that I am wrong, & that despite an increase in participation of 14pts & reaching presidential election level turnout- the 2018 midterms were persuasion elections won on healthcare. So I don't blame her for not taking me, or my warnings
seriously. When incredibly successful, well-respected people tell you someone is a moron, & you don't know that person or their work, you believe them. That is why having such erroneous claims made about me and my research, esp when intentional mischaracterization and distortions
of my work or research products are used to support those insults, are incredibly damaging to me professionally- but also to my ability to assist Democrats in improving their electioneering capabilities. Which they so very clearly need to do.
My interest, I should add, is the same as it ever was, to stop losing winnable races to a party full of racist fascists. That's why I do so much shit for free & barely sleep. So, to anyone telling people I'm a grifter- a big fuck you. Which I can I say, bc I'm unemployed.
