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A 2nd PRELIMINARY gender gap 2020 update, w thanks to @b_schaffner sharing early CES crosstabs. Gender gap grows very very slightly, perhaps due to women, but stays well within the "normal" range we've seen for 40 years.
In 2016, white women w/o a college degree moved TO Trump, while white women w a degree moved FROM Trump. In 2020, white women (& men) w a degree continue to shift D, while white women (% men) w/o a degree move slightly in a D direction. D shift among white women w degree sharper.
Note: (1) In terms of vote pref, white women w a degree look more like similarly-ed'd white men than they do white women w/o a degree. (Same true of men). (2) There is a (variously sized) gg among whites w & w/o a degree, just as we see among other racial/religious/etc groups.
In the AP VoteCast data, we see a familiar pattern, with majorities of whites voting R and majorities of other racial groups voting D. In these data, at least, men are more likely to vote R among all 3 racial groups. This does not mean the causes are the same!
As we saw w whites w & w/o degrees, women vote more similarly to the men in their own racial group than they do to women in other racial groups. Gender matters, but race (and ed) matter more. Women have identies and interests, in ADDITION to gender, that shape their choices.
More data needed & it will be some time before we can tell this story accurately & confidently. THIS IS ALL PRELIMINARY. My tl:dr for now: Gender gap remains at "normal" levels, but there is interesting & important movement if we look beyond just "woman" as a category. /FIN
