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In a previous thread, I calculated the stat career arc of 25 top players w/ longevity (5 each position).
In this thread, I'll use this "typical career arc" to project Baylor's stats if he had not injured his knees (first injury was in 1963; second 1965). https://twitter.com/grisingTRS/status/1323693502002204672
In this thread, I'll use this "typical career arc" to project Baylor's stats if he had not injured his knees (first injury was in 1963; second 1965). https://twitter.com/grisingTRS/status/1323693502002204672
Baylor's projected stats without injuries: Thread.
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Baylor's stats compared with the average stats of top, long-time SF:
(Omitted: 1971 & 1972, when Baylor played only 11 total games.)
PTS/36 & TS%: Sharp drop after 1963
REB: Smaller drop
AST: Stayed pretty steady
(Omitted: 1971 & 1972, when Baylor played only 11 total games.)
PTS/36 & TS%: Sharp drop after 1963
REB: Smaller drop
AST: Stayed pretty steady
Baylor's projected stats: Based on if he had never injured his knees and, instead, had same career arc as top SF with longevity:
Career
TS%, P/G, R/G, A/G
.494, 27.4, 13.5, 4.3 Actual
.540, 32.7, 14.1, 5.5 Projected, 1964-72
Projected: Almost 35K PTS & 15K REB
Highest P/G ever
Career
TS%, P/G, R/G, A/G
.494, 27.4, 13.5, 4.3 Actual
.540, 32.7, 14.1, 5.5 Projected, 1964-72
Projected: Almost 35K PTS & 15K REB
Highest P/G ever
Trend of projected stats look reasonable:
W/ injuries; without
Year, P/G, A/G
1961: 35, 20
1962: 38, 18
1963: 34, 14
1964: 25, 12; 33, 14
1965: 27, 13; 33, 16
1966: 17, 10; 36, 16
Only projected assists are likely high; injuries probably wouldn't affect assists as much.
W/ injuries; without
Year, P/G, A/G
1961: 35, 20
1962: 38, 18
1963: 34, 14
1964: 25, 12; 33, 14
1965: 27, 13; 33, 16
1966: 17, 10; 36, 16
Only projected assists are likely high; injuries probably wouldn't affect assists as much.
Baylor's advanced stats:
Regular season:
Before, after injuries:
PER: 26.1, 20.2
WS/48: .195, .112
POs: Before, after
PER: 25.1, 18.8
WS/48: .183, .088
Regular season:
Before, after injuries:
PER: 26.1, 20.2
WS/48: .195, .112
POs: Before, after
PER: 25.1, 18.8
WS/48: .183, .088
Based on projected stats, Baylor would have:
Won 5 straight scoring titles: 1966, 67, 68, 69, 70.
Likely won MVP in 1969 and possibly in 1965, 66, 70.
Lakers possibly win champs in 1965, 66, 68, 69, 70, 72
Actual vs. projected:
0, 5: Scoring titles
0, 4: MVPs
0, 6: Champs
Won 5 straight scoring titles: 1966, 67, 68, 69, 70.
Likely won MVP in 1969 and possibly in 1965, 66, 70.
Lakers possibly win champs in 1965, 66, 68, 69, 70, 72
Actual vs. projected:
0, 5: Scoring titles
0, 4: MVPs
0, 6: Champs
If Baylor hadn't been injured and had the same career arc as other top SF, he would easily be considered a top 5 all-time player.
In fact, there would likely be a major battle on Twitter over who was the better SF: Elgin or LeBron.
In fact, there would likely be a major battle on Twitter over who was the better SF: Elgin or LeBron.
