Re: PA, Trump has +114k lead with 369k votes left.

I was doing a deep dive on the raw data from the state re: ballots remaining

Since last night 393,947 ballots were counted. Biden won those just 56%-44%, versus the 78-22 margin he had on the first 1.7 million mail ins. Reason:

"late" mail in ballots are more ambiguous than early ones. IOW, most hardcore Never-Trumpers, in suburbs and even behind enemy lines in Pennsyltucky, dumped off their ballots 3-4 weeks ago. If ballots are being counted *chronologically*, by order of receipt, good news for Trump

In AZ, many projecting Trump to win now, because of these same "late early" ballots-- even tho Trump was losing AZ early ballots in the first batches by large margins.

These later mail-in ballots slant more toward true swing voters, "late-breakers" for Trump etc

One issue tho is yesterday Philly had 120k ballots left, & there's still 91k out there. Good news: Chester & Montgomery (combined 70k left yesterday) have only 5k remaining today, so he's weathered that storm.

Bucks still has 46k left, but its the more Republican of the suburbs

What Trump needs to do in last batches is hold up in the burbs (ie, instead of getting clobbered 70-30 as he was in earliest batches of suburban mail-ins, post more respectable 55-45 numbers), & HOPEFULLY get >15% late ballots in Philly. Corruption scandal, riots can't help Biden

Red Areas: combined 114k remaining in: Cumberland, Erie, Monroe, Crawford, Mercer, Blair, Carbon, Armstrong, Tioga, Greene, and Westmoreland Counties

Trump won these huge on E-Day, but early mail-ins sucked in all the Dem partisans. He needs "late" mail-ins to break in his favor

In fact looking at data, only Philly (91k), Allegheny (36k), Delaware+Montgomery (14.5k) = total of 141.5k will break strongly Biden (maybe 75-25 combined, expecting slightly diminished margins from early mail-ins)

That's +71k to Biden margin.

Lehigh+Bucks (85k) might be true tossups at this late stage, since their early mail-ins were likely in 70-30 range. If 55-45 Biden, that's +7k to margin

That leaves 142.5k (the red counties I outlined plus many tiny ones) where Trump might expect to win late mail-ins outright...

Lets say Philly+Montco/Delco+Allegh still 80-20 to be safe:

They add +85k to Biden margin
Lehigh+Bucks: +7k to Biden margin
All others: +0 to +50k (?) to Trump margin

Trump's currently +114k overall in the state...

To show you what I mean, here are the Targetsmart estimates for mail-ins in PA as of 10/19. Biden was +47 at that point excluding the indies (70.6 - 23.6).... looks a look like margins he was getting in first 1.7mil mail-ins

But by 11/2, Biden was modeled as only +31.9