(1 of 11) A thread about the remaining AZ vote. Topline: estimated 460k votes remaining statewide. 65% in Maricopa County. The count will take days, and Trump needs 57% of the remaining to win, which is very unlikely. I'll explain why below.

(2 of 11) Best info I have about remaining Maricopa vote: 275k early ballots, 17k provisionals = 65% of the remaining ballots statewide. About 65k from a GOP-leaning batch of early voters. The balance (200k-ish) comes from a pool of voters that is more friendly to Biden.

(3 of 11) The 65k-ish GOP-leaning Maricopa County ballots come from the same batch that gave Trump a 58%/40% split yesterday. Expect to see the same in this batch.

(4 of 11) The 200k-ish Maricopa ballots dropped off at the polling place are a whole different ballgame for Trump. The votes will come from a pool of voters with an Independent plurality, D’s and R’s even, and skew much younger--thus a probable Biden-advantage from this bucket.

(5 of 11) There is an estimated 17k provisionals in Maricopa County. No data available on who they are yet, but historically these are Dem-leaning.

(6 of 11) Outside of Maricopa County, there is an estimated 160k to 170k ballots. These are all late early ballots and provisionals.

(7 of 11) Pinal County has 61,800-ish ballots left for tabulation. 41k are late-arriving early ballots, 19k that likely were dropped at the polls, and 1,800 provisionals. Expect the 41k to give Trump a large margin. The remainder should have a smaller margin.

(8 of 11) 44,779-ish in Pima County. 18,139 provisional ballots that should be Biden-leaning. And 26,640 remaining early ballots. Democrats will gain votes, but don’t expect a huge margin.

(9 of 11) Coconino County has 12,998-ish ballots to count. 1,446 provisionals and 11,552 early ballots that were late arriving and dropped at the polls. Same as Pima: Biden-leaning, but don’t expect a huge margin.

(10 of 11) Remaining 36k ballots come from rural counties that are a mix of red and blue. These ballots should favor Trump, but include some Democratic areas like Santa Cruz County.

(11 of 11) Big picture: Trump will make up some more ground. Small batches (Pinal and next batch of Maricopa County ballots) may even give Trump a 60%ish margin—But it is really hard to construct a scenario where Trump even halves the 68k margin. 11 electoral votes for Biden.

(Bonus tweet) If you are excited that Arizona is going for Biden, throw a little love to some of the folks who have done much of the heavy lifting: @LUCHA_AZ. https://luchaaz.org/contribute