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TEXAS (97% in): Joe Biden has more votes in 2020 than Donald Trump got there in 2016.
Biden grew Clinton's TX vote from 3.88M to 5.22M (!).
But Trump grew his TX vote from 4.69M to 5.87M.
Biden grew Clinton's TX vote from 3.88M to 5.22M (!).
But Trump grew his TX vote from 4.69M to 5.87M.
And this is the story in battlegrounds all over the country.
Biden got far more votes than Clinton, but Trump grew his vote substantially, too, and it made the election close.
Look at Florida: Clinton got 4.5M and Biden has 5.3M; Trump has gone from 4.6M to 5.6M (with 96% in).
Biden got far more votes than Clinton, but Trump grew his vote substantially, too, and it made the election close.
Look at Florida: Clinton got 4.5M and Biden has 5.3M; Trump has gone from 4.6M to 5.6M (with 96% in).
How did Trump grow his vote? Partially by boosting his margins a bit with non-white voters. But more importantly from the early exits he appears to have found a lot more white Americans without a college degree and gotten them to vote, which strengthened him everywhere.
That growth from 2016 to 2020 showed up in the Midwest and made Trump more competitive than polls captured.
Wisconsin's share of non-college whites grew from 47% to 55% (per exit polls).
Michigan's share of white non-college voters grew from 42% to 51% (per exit polls).
Wisconsin's share of non-college whites grew from 47% to 55% (per exit polls).
Michigan's share of white non-college voters grew from 42% to 51% (per exit polls).
Crucially, exit polls say Biden cut into Trump's 2016 winning *margins* with non-college white voters, which as things look might have saved the election for Democrats.
In Wisconsin
Trump+28 in 2016
Trump+10 in 2020
In Michigan
Trump+31 in 2016
Trump+15 in 2020
In Wisconsin
Trump+28 in 2016
Trump+10 in 2020
In Michigan
Trump+31 in 2016
Trump+15 in 2020
This is all based on exit poll data available at http://NBCNews.com , which in 2020 include live interviews with Election Day voters and early in-person voters plus phone polls for absentee voters. Apply any discounts as you see fit. We'll get an even clearer picture in time.
