There's some "conventional wisdom" about Pelosi reelection as Speaker: "She doesn't have a challenger," and "You can't beat something with nothing."

But, you can. And further, that's almost always how it happens.

Open speakership races against an incumbent almost never happen under the modern speaker election process (i.e. post-1880). Rather, incumbents are first unseated, which then initiates the true open race.

To unseat incumbent Speakers, you do beat something with nothing.

Speaker Reed suffered waning support following his 3rd term after his disagreements on foreign policy and Hawaiian annexation put him at odds with his caucus.

Reed was not directly challenged. Rather, he saw the tea leaves and abruptly announced his retirement.

His announcement sparked a four-way race between Reps. Henderson, Cannon, Sherman, and Hopkins, which Henderson ultimately won.

Four years later Henderson suddenly announced his retirement after a personal scandal was brought to his attention. Rather than risk information coming to light and wage the political battle, he stepped aside.

This opened the door for Cannon to step into the void.

Even Speaker McCormack, who was challenged by Mo Udall, withstood Udall's challenge and subsequent calls for a vote of no confidence in the Democratic Party.

Rather than continue to lead a split caucus, McCormack kept his retirement secret until May 1970.

Challengers don't typically openly contest incumbent speakers because it's not a fair fight. Speakers have a lot of institutional and procedural levers making defection from the incumbent a super-risky proposition.

A challenger can offer promises, maybe advocate for your subcommittee gavel. A Speaker, on the other hand, holds the power to make sure won't get it... ever.

Incumbent speakers are not challenged. They are undermined. And a smart candidate for speaker will know when to announce their candidacy... after the current Speaker is gone.