NEWS: First batch of new votes from NV, from Clark, shows Biden lead up to 12K.

Only about 14K votes or so updated from Clark and Biden lead goes up by almost 5K. See the advantage Dems have with mail. If that is ratio for ballots in Clark, very bad news for Trump.

Washoe If no more Clark numbers post today, though, this lead will shrink when rurals post. But there tens of thousands of mail ballots to come from Clark....eventually.

Rural Elko comes in -- helps Trump by 300 votes or so.

Biden by 11,500.

Lyon, too, not moving dial much.

Shows you disproportionate impact of Clark.

Lyon and Elko are two of larger rural counties.

Biden by 11.5K

Washoe posted, about even as I suspected.

Biden up by nearly 12K.

So if Washoe and rurals are about exhausted (or will be soon) and Dem-friendly Clark has tens of thousands of ballots left, this is a very ominous first half-hour for Team Trump.

Douglas and Nye counties still have a few thousand votes out there to report. That will reduce Biden's lead by a few hundred, maybe a few thousand.

Nye in, reduces Biden lead by only 300 votes.

Biden up 11.4K.

Super-red Douglas still yet to report. One of larger rurals, had 94 percent turnout in 2016, going to be close to that this time.

But numbers small compared to Clark.

Missed the big cache from Storey County that reported:

6 votes for Trump and 2 for Biden.

Game. Changed.

HERE'S WHERE WE ARE:

Washoe only has few thousand provisionals left -- should be a wash.

Few thousand rural votes left -- Biden will lose 2k max there, probably less.

That leaves Clark and tens of thousands of mail and provisionals. Little chance Dems lose there.

SO...

Biden is up by 11.4K right now in NV.

Dems are going to win these mail ballots coming in from Election Day and yesterday -- 63K. And they should win them decisively. That leaves 60K provisionals, which have been evenly split.

I see no path left for Trump here.