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It's still too early to do poll assessments. If we don't know who the next president is, we definitely don't know how well the polls did.
That said, a couple thoughts on things I hope the field and #AAPOR considers:
That said, a couple thoughts on things I hope the field and #AAPOR considers:
Election polling and analysis is overwhelmingly white. Overwhelmingly.
We don't spend enough time or effort on Black, Hispanic, Asian, multiracial, and smaller racial/ethnic groups. In a pre-election poll with n=1,000 (or less), sometimes those groups don't even get reported.
We don't spend enough time or effort on Black, Hispanic, Asian, multiracial, and smaller racial/ethnic groups. In a pre-election poll with n=1,000 (or less), sometimes those groups don't even get reported.
Even with larger polls, we don't focus enough on these groups.
It's important to know where white people are on things since they've been in the driver's seat (and many seem determined to try to remain there), but that's not enough.
It's important to know where white people are on things since they've been in the driver's seat (and many seem determined to try to remain there), but that's not enough.
It's very clear that Hispanic and Latinx groups need more political focus, which groups like @LatinoDecisions have been telling us for a long time. They are far from monolithic, and we need to know more about how and why.
Black Americans have unique perspectives and values that make us stronger as a country. What do they think would make the country better? What drives their votes? I know @HITStrat has been focusing on this, and you should check them out.
I learned a ton from @AAPIData in a report we did with them on Asian American and Pacific Islander groups in California. They do great work on highlighting the nuances of another very complex and diverse group that gets compressed into one.
But where are most pollsters on this? Usually in the camp of "sorry, sample size is too small." Which is valid. But it's not a justification. If we're going to spend money on polls, we need to spend enough to adequately represent all parts of the country.
Some circumstances will restrict the ability to collect more data; I get that. But n=1,000 polls where we can't report *at least* Black and Hispanic Americans with a reasonable MOE should be the exception and no longer be acceptable as the norm in our field.
Thanks for coming to my tedtalk.
