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So...I'm seeing a lot of stuff like "bad year for House Dems" or other such. And to the extent it's true because we lost things like NM02, SC01, OK5, things like that--sure. But look. 1/x.
2/x These seats were a reach in 2018. We did not expect to win them. We did because it was a wave election. Our base showed up in droves, the Republican base did not. So we won seats that we did not expect to, and probably wouldn't have most other times.
We expected to be able to pick up more seats because we expected another wave election. That's what the polling was telling us, but it was off, especially in district elections. So a lot of the seats that we probably had no business winning outside of a wave election, we lost. 3/
4/ again: not a wave election. This was the highest turnout for an election in 120 years. Full strength vs. full strength. no demoralized base on either side. This election is what happens when both sides are juiced to the max. and we can look at what that state of play is.
that state of play? Dems win the popular vote margin by several million and perhaps 5%, but the electoral college keeps the race close. The House is Democratic, despite 2010's gerrymandering. The Senate is an unrepresentative anti-Democratic sh**show. 5/
6/ And in a full-strength on full-strength contest, Dems took back the Rust Belt, appear to have won Arizona, and turned Georgia into a true toss-up. Those are the results. That doesn't mean that the margins are locked in, but the difference we're talking about is the margins.
7/ what these numbers say about the electorate is what's sobering. Obviously, Dems need to work harder to earn the Hispanic vote. But we have to reckon with the fact that 45% of the country wants an authoritarian vicious macho bully who triggers the libs. It's what they want.
8/ they didn't pick this option because of a lack of better ones, or an insufficient focus on economics. they picked it because it's what they want. It's not false consciousness. They like it. We have to assess that rationally, and figure out how to govern that.
9/ I don't have answers for what that looks like, but I worry it will turn into an increasingly violent minority faction. I don't have answers for that. End of thread.
