According to the AP VoteCast (which seems quite robust), about one-third of Muslims cast a ballot for Donald Trump.

Did we see this coming and do we know who these Muslims are? Sort of...

[THREAD]

https://www.npr.org/2020/11/03/929478378/understanding-the-2020-electorate-ap-votecast-survey

Reliable data on American Muslims is hard to find. Luckily, earlier this year @TheISPU fielded its annual survey polling the general public w/ oversamples of American Muslims and Jews. As you would expect, Muslims were among the least likely to approve of Trump's job performance.

Notably, this poll was fielded in March just as the pandemic was becoming a more salient issue and prior to the social unrest prompted by the murder of George Floyd. Therefore, one would be inclined to think 30% is a hard ceiling for the Muslim Trump vote. So what gives?

The first thing to note, as many are now coming to realize when it comes to the catch-all "Latino" category, is that Muslims are not a monolith. They are, in fact, the most diverse religious community in the US in terms of race/ethnicity.

This heterogeneity is all the more notable as racial/ethnic identity is increasingly predictive of many political preferences. There's no reason to believe that Muslims are immune to this general trend, and so it's no surprise that Whites are the likeliest to approve of Trump.

But this isn't the whole story. When asked who they wanted to win the election, only 14% of Muslims picked Trump. But remember, this poll was fielded in the waning days of the Dem primary. So, >60% of Muslims didn't affirmatively support either of the parties' ultimate nominees.

It seems that a sizable portion of that 60% broke for Trump. While there was no way to ex ante predict how large a portion this would be, the final shift is not all that surprising. For one thing, there are more Muslim Republicans now than at any other point in the past 5 years.

Additionally, as @ryanburge shows, Muslims' political ideology is far from settled. They can be fiscally/socially conservative on some issues, while being fiscally/socially liberal on others.

There is no "natural" political home for American Muslims.

IN SUM: A sizable % of American Muslims identify as White and their voting behavior doesn't appear to diverge from Whites in the general public. Add to that unstable party ID & socially conservative leanings and you reach one conclusion...

Don't take the Muslim vote for granted!