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1/ My latest for @MPRnews looks at the power & the limits of the DFL’s electoral dominance in the Twin Cities. First, the power: Biden’s landslide in Hennepin Cty ALONE was bigger than all Trump’s counties COMBINED. It’s no wonder Ds have a winning streak. https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/11/05/2020-demonstrates-power-limits-of-dfl-urban-dominance
2/ But while no Republican has won a statewide race in MN since 2006, largely because of the mass of DFL votes out of Hennepin and Ramsey, this power has limits. Against the DFL winning streak in STATEWIDE elections, #mnleg control keeps flipping. https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/11/05/2020-demonstrates-power-limits-of-dfl-urban-dominance
3/ In 2020, Biden is winning Minnesota by about 7 points. But at the present, it looks like the DFL is going to LOSE the #mnleg Senate. This could change as votes trickle in, but if the DFL wins it it’ll be NARROWLY, amid a giant Biden win. https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/11/05/2020-demonstrates-power-limits-of-dfl-urban-dominance
4/ So why are Democrats so dominant in statewide races, but #mnleg is a seesaw? Part of it is that DFL votes are inefficiently concentrated in the Twin Cities. Running up the vote w/ your base helps you win statewide, but not in a DISTRICTED election. https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/11/05/2020-demonstrates-power-limits-of-dfl-urban-dominance
5/ In 2020, at this moment Democrats are on track to win a majority of statewide two-party votes for #mnleg Senate, 50.73%, but to take away only 49.2% of seats. https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/11/05/2020-demonstrates-power-limits-of-dfl-urban-dominance
6/ Now, that’s a pretty small gap all told, it just seems really significant because the numbers are on opposite sides of 50%. But this is persistent. DFLers almost always have what’s called an “efficiency gap” in #mnleg elections — more votes “wasted” in blowout races.
7/ The only times this century that DFL #mnleg candidates didn’t “waste” more votes than Republicans were the wave years of 2006 and 2008, when they won all over rural MN. https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/11/05/2020-demonstrates-power-limits-of-dfl-urban-dominance
8/ But an efficiency gap doesn’t make it impossible to win control. You might notice Dems had a smaller efficiency gap in 2020, when they probably lost the Senate, than in 2012, when they won it. There’s another explanation to consider, too. https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/11/05/2020-demonstrates-power-limits-of-dfl-urban-dominance
9/ At least in the last few elections, it looks like there are a considerable number of Minnesotans who are splitting their tickets, voting for Democratic presidents & governors, but Republicans for #mnleg. Right now DFLers are losing 6 Biden districts. https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/11/05/2020-demonstrates-power-limits-of-dfl-urban-dominance
10/ Biden beat Trump in 37 #mnleg Senate districts, enough for a majority if every district had followed presidential vote patterns. But ticket-splitting veered against #mnleg DFLers here. https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/11/05/2020-demonstrates-power-limits-of-dfl-urban-dominance
11/ And this isn’t new! For most of the past decade, Republican candidates for #mnleg combined have outperformed GOP candidates for president or governor, often by 100K votes or more. https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/11/05/2020-demonstrates-power-limits-of-dfl-urban-dominance
12/ It could be these are former Republicans who have started voting for Democratic executives but still back Republican legislators. Or DFLers voting red for #mnleg. Or people voting for divided gov’t. Lots of possible explanations. https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/11/05/2020-demonstrates-power-limits-of-dfl-urban-dominance
13/ Anyway, check out my full story @MPRnews, and shoot me your theories and explanations! https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/11/05/2020-demonstrates-power-limits-of-dfl-urban-dominance
