T-minus two hours until new numbers supposed to be released in Nevada, where Joe Biden has a 7,500-vote lead.

Would you like a thread on what to expect at 9 AM on the best coast?

I thought you might.

Let me walk you through it.

1/

Just under 1.2 million votes have been reported. Joe Biden has about a 7,500-vote lead. I would estimate that there are at least 150,000 more votes to be counted. Almost half of those may be people who registered the same day they voted and were given provisional ballots.
2/

The provisionals will be counted last -- this is for security reasons to make sure none of these people already voted. Overwhelming majority of remaining mail ballots are in Clark County, the Dem stronghold where they have won mail ballots by huge, more than 2-to-1 margins.
3/

Clark ballots (still coming in) should favor Dems, but ? is how fast will they be released. If they only report a fraction today (likely), may not change a lot, especially if outstanding rural ballots offset. That's why Dems would like to see more of Clark reported today.
4/

The SOS plans to start reporting at 9. But the plan is to report county by county. If the rurals, where I'd guess there are more than 10K ballots remaining, go first, that could cut significantly into Biden's lead, maybe erase half of it or more. Washoe may be a...wash.
5/

Race is so close right now because Biden underperformed in Clark, where 2/3 of the vote is and Clinton won by 11. He is only up by 8 points, which has allowed the rurals to offset Clark. And it's why Dems are not celebrating NV deciding this thing. Could be close. Buckle up.
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