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We have more to learn about how people's views on the pandemic shaped votes. Still, it seems clear that almost 10 million reported cases, hundreds of thousands of deaths, and a highly criticized federal response don’t seem to have precipitated much of a shift in voting patterns.
Partly this was because partisan views about the pandemic seem to have been baked in before this week’s election. Democrats placed much more of an emphasis on the pandemic, while Republicans placed much less.
https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/report/kff-health-tracking-poll-september-2020/
https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/report/kff-health-tracking-poll-september-2020/
If anything, the pandemic may have intensified the existing partisan split. The gap between Trump and Biden supporters' views on the importance of the pandemic was far greater than any other key issue heading into the election. https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/10/21/only-24-of-trump-supporters-view-the-coronavirus-outbreak-as-a-very-important-voting-issue/
Even in counties hardest hit by the virus, partisan effects seem to far outweigh the very real effects of deaths from the virus.
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/07/22/republicans-remain-far-less-likely-than-democrats-to-view-covid-19-as-a-major-threat-to-public-health/
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/07/22/republicans-remain-far-less-likely-than-democrats-to-view-covid-19-as-a-major-threat-to-public-health/
It’s how you can get results like this https://twitter.com/bradheath/status/1323827431178948615
One might point to marginal effects at state/local level, which are important as elections are won at the margin. In places like Wisconsin one can speculate enough people’s votes changed because of the pandemic to flip the state from red to blue. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/amid-covid-19-pandemic-wisconsin-voters-choose-biden-over-trump
Of course, with so many important undercurrents weighing on people’s voting decisions it’s hard to zero in the effect of a single factor. But the national vote was not much of a repudiation of the US coronavirus response.