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What is wrong with Ontario's latest approach to COVID?
It is #So1stWave. Emerging from the first wave, we were happy we survived it, and thought that if we could just keep case counts reasonably low or prevent hospitals or ICUs from being overwhelmed, we would win the battle.
It is #So1stWave. Emerging from the first wave, we were happy we survived it, and thought that if we could just keep case counts reasonably low or prevent hospitals or ICUs from being overwhelmed, we would win the battle.
This is the ExCUSE (Examples of Canada, US, and Europe) approach. The govt. released their new plan predicated on this thinking. If I were to bet, it was conceived over 6 weeks ago (i.e. around Sept. 23). To remind you, this was ExCUSE total deaths and cases 6 weeks ago.
I will focus on 2 countries to demonstrate what happens when you take a #So1stWave approach. We will start with Belgium (pop 11.5m), using data from @OurWorldInData and Belgium's National Science Institute: https://epistat.wiv-isp.be/covid/covid-19.html. Here was where they were Sep 23. <4 deaths/d.
If you plugged in all the data, they would be in our new "Restrict" (orange) zone:
13.8 cases/100 000/day
%positivity 4.3%
Ro was 1.34 (which would place it in the red "Control" category)
550 patients hospitalized
105 in the ICU
All is good.
13.8 cases/100 000/day
%positivity 4.3%
Ro was 1.34 (which would place it in the red "Control" category)
550 patients hospitalized
105 in the ICU
All is good.
But fast forward 4 weeks (remembering the various lags of inaction and effect of any new PH measures).
104 cases/100 000/day
%positive 18.6%
Rt 1.53
3275 patients hospitalized
525 in the ICU
Country overwhelmed (and over 40 deaths/d)
104 cases/100 000/day
%positive 18.6%
Rt 1.53
3275 patients hospitalized
525 in the ICU
Country overwhelmed (and over 40 deaths/d)
Well, you might say, why would we look at Belgium. They are a tiny, largely insignificant country with an overstated importance of waffles. Fair enough. Let's look at Germany (popn 83M). This is where they were at on Sep 23
13 cases/100 000/WEEK
%positivity 1.1%
Rt <1
13 cases/100 000/WEEK
%positivity 1.1%
Rt <1
Surely we can relate (or be envious of) the Germans.
Let's read their situation report (found at the Robert Koch Institute https://www.rki.de/EN/Home/homepage_node.html) from Sep 23, and see if it sounds familiar. They would firmly be in our yellow "Protect" zone.
Let's read their situation report (found at the Robert Koch Institute https://www.rki.de/EN/Home/homepage_node.html) from Sep 23, and see if it sounds familiar. They would firmly be in our yellow "Protect" zone.
Now let's move forward 4 weeks in Germany.
51 cases/100K/wk
3.6% positivity
Rt~1.3
25-30 deaths/day
They would fall within our Amber "Restrict" zone. They also responded in a cool-headed manner, similar to how we are responding. That was Oct. 21.
51 cases/100K/wk
3.6% positivity
Rt~1.3
25-30 deaths/day
They would fall within our Amber "Restrict" zone. They also responded in a cool-headed manner, similar to how we are responding. That was Oct. 21.
Today: 90 deaths/day. This is their most recent situation report.
We have seen this before. Let's not repeat the mistakes of Europe. Make no mistake, we should not pursue a strategy that is #So1stWave. It is indefensible, and WE DON'T HAVE TIME TO TWEAK. We need to pursue an A-PAC strategy https://twitter.com/ASPphysician/status/1323249074636689409?s=20
