1/ This was great listen. I thought Cole was more articulate in this than in some other recent podcasts. Williams & Fleck are good tag team.

I wanted to comment on some of the points... https://twitter.com/ttmygh/status/1324265414826827776

2/ I think Cole gets a bad rap as being a Cassandra.

In this podcast he says both:

A) Paraphrase: "Fundamentals are so bad we are doomed"

B) "Fundamentals are meaningless, flows are everything"

These both can be true along different intervals of time

3/ As traders we have to get really good at not letting our long term view infect a short term implementation. This is still very hard for me to do, even after decades of practice.

I am not totally systematic but systems can really help this.

4/ If you listen to the total of his comments you understand that he considers regime to be very important. I agree 100%. This is probably the most important thing you need to know if you are a intermediate term trader or investor.

5/ He argues that we could soon approach a once in a lifetime regime change to inflationary regime. I think his arguments make a lot of sense. The time interval is undefinable and he says as much, but there are some key considerations..

6/ Even if you don't believe it could happen you need to know how your portfolio would perform if it did. You also need to have a system to detect if it does happen. And, you need a playbook on what to do once you decide we are living in it. An analogy...

7/ You play in regular poker game with your buddies, who play 80% of their hands, never 4 bet, never bluff and never fold if they catch a piece of the flop. You have developed a strategy to beat this game...

8/ You cannot take this strategy to the biggest poker games and win. There will be a regime change. The players will be a lot tighter and you will be totally bewildered by their aggression. You will hemorrhage money over time. So..

9/ You better have your strategy to beat this game developed before you sit down.

Same for trading/investments. You need to know what to do before it happens.

Have the playbook ready. Decide when it is time to switch playbooks.

10/ His point on autocorrelation switching due to monetary regimes was awesome. I have studied this extensively. I make ~80% of my profit BTR/STD and if we switch to positive autocorrelation I will have to totally change the timing of what I do, if I can even still do it

11/ His comments on gold & gold vol were so inspiring. I have 50% of my equities in precious metals stocks and after listening to him I was ready to go 150%.

Must restrain myself.

12/ He had a great point that the CBs have basically moved all the low SD moves to the tails. The whole volatility can't be destroyed premise, that I think is obviously true.

13/ All in all a great listen that renewed my faith in playing the tails.