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The Basic Math of Biden's Certain Win in Pennsylvania: a very brief thread 
1. There are 763,311 Mail Ballots Remaining to be counted per the Pennsylvania Department of State https://www.votespa.com/About-Elections/Pages/Counting-Dashboard.aspx
2. Biden was winning Mail Ballots (generically called Absentee ballots for all states by the NYT's) 78.4 to 20.7 the last time the NYT's updated this figure yesterday a.m. (it doesn't appear to have changed). https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-pennsylvania.html
3. Trump's current lead is 164,414 (same NYT page, updated as of this a.m., same at other sites).
4. Even if we *extremely cautiously* move Biden's mail ballot advantage in what is left from 4:1 to 2:1, Biden gains 250K on the gap, totally swamping that 164K lead Trump has.
I despise Biden enough not to say congrats. But it is, quite clearly, over.
Good riddance to Trump.
I despise Biden enough not to say congrats. But it is, quite clearly, over.
Good riddance to Trump.
To answer something going around that *could* be credible. This guy says, contra the Dept of State website, that it is just under 500K ballots left to count with most recent ration 2.7 - 1 Biden:Trump. That's a little tighter, but still a very clear Biden win. https://twitter.com/julianrouth/status/1324233913313746945
Since it doesn't look likely to be published any time soon (sent to editor late last night), I'll add my own math.
In 40+ counties with 95%+ vote counted, Trump is doing 1.5% worse on average on the gap over 2016 (when he won by just under .75%.). -cont-
In 40+ counties with 95%+ vote counted, Trump is doing 1.5% worse on average on the gap over 2016 (when he won by just under .75%.). -cont-
In the 14 of those 40+ counties where they have *also* reported their absentee totals, that deficit for Trump over his 2016 gap is 2.9%.
He's bleeding out. Death cometh, but soon.
He's bleeding out. Death cometh, but soon.
UPDATE:
(This update will be *the* most charitable to Trump's chances that I can possibly imagine)
(This update will be *the* most charitable to Trump's chances that I can possibly imagine)
A) As of the update good through 9:35am (working of the NYT's results page), Biden has shaved Trump's lead to 135,702.
B) This includes 1,105,214 Mail (absentee per NYT lingo) ballots.
C) The NYT's @Nate_Cohn reported as of yesterday at 5am that there were 1.4M mail ballots. The State of PA + US Supreme Court agreed that ballots arriving *after* that point (i.e. Wed or later) would be sequestered.
D) that would leave approximate 300K non-sequestered ballots left to count.
If Trump could win close to 30% of the remaining mail ballots (current figure per NYT's is 19% Trump in returned mail ballots), it would stay close.
I don't see it.
If Trump could win close to 30% of the remaining mail ballots (current figure per NYT's is 19% Trump in returned mail ballots), it would stay close.
I don't see it.
UPDATE 2:
My table*, current through results as of 10am. There are now 46 counties with 95% or more of their projected ballot totals counted.
Trump continues to run an average of 1.6% behind his 2016 margins.
This would mean approximately a 1% loss statewide.
My table*, current through results as of 10am. There are now 46 counties with 95% or more of their projected ballot totals counted.
Trump continues to run an average of 1.6% behind his 2016 margins.
This would mean approximately a 1% loss statewide.
*See above for previous version of the table. That had a rosier view (2.9% Trump 2016 margin deficit) for counties with some absentee/mail ballots counted. It relied on NYT's reporting on which counties had done so. NYT's is seriously behind PA Dept. of State reporting this.
(The new counties reaching 95%, Franklin and Montour, are in purple text. Counties with the third column from left with numbers in bold have had updated figures recently released.)
NEW UPDATE:
PA's Department of State updated to 581,167 Mails ballots left to count just under an hour ago.
https://www.votespa.com/About-Elections/Pages/Counting-Dashboard.aspx
Trump would need to win 40% of these ballots to win.
Reminder: he is currently winning just under 20% of these types of ballots.
PA's Department of State updated to 581,167 Mails ballots left to count just under an hour ago.
https://www.votespa.com/About-Elections/Pages/Counting-Dashboard.aspx
Trump would need to win 40% of these ballots to win.
Reminder: he is currently winning just under 20% of these types of ballots.
In article form: https://www.counterpunch.org/2020/11/05/biden-appears-to-have-won-why-he-must-be-primaried-in-2024/
UPDATE 3:45pm Eastern:
A) Biden has shaved Trump's lead to 101K from 700K at 5am yesterday
B) There are 340K mail ballots left to count per the update just now from PA's Dept of State https://www.votespa.com/About-Elections/Pages/Counting-Dashboard.aspx
C) Biden continues to win ballots 3:1. This would mean ~75K vote win
A) Biden has shaved Trump's lead to 101K from 700K at 5am yesterday
B) There are 340K mail ballots left to count per the update just now from PA's Dept of State https://www.votespa.com/About-Elections/Pages/Counting-Dashboard.aspx
C) Biden continues to win ballots 3:1. This would mean ~75K vote win
The courts are now keenly involved in a way that may make 75K not enough to declare victory. Uggh. https://twitter.com/djjohnso/status/1324455660222926850
