Read on Twitter
1. COVID currently is not going to be eliminated. Islands/small countries can exploit geographic advantage - but are susceptible to the world given how deep this has infiltrated. Compare to smallpox - we don't have the tools. https://nationalpost.com/opinion/opinion-were-infectious-disease-experts-and-eliminating-covid-wont-happen-any-time-soon
2. Even with a vaccine - we still may not be out of it - makes assumptions high sterilization/prevention. Measles vaccine is highly effective yet given global burden still difficult to eliminate. Smallpox took decades. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-a-vaccine-may-not-be-the-simple-solution-we-are-hoping-for/
So where does that leave us - at a point where we do have to live with this virus for the forseeable and long term future. Other than dexamethasone no miracle drug has hit the market to reduce disease/disability/death. We need to live with COVID. https://nationalpost.com/opinion/how-we-can-keep-covid-down-using-the-hammer-and-the-dance
We wrote an article suggesting that it wasn't just cases that lead us into lockdown, but multiple factors (testing, turnaround, contact tracing, increasing systemic contacts) that failed - and the roadmap out needed to address these https://nationalpost.com/opinion/opinion-a-roadmap-out-of-lockdown-for-ontario
The province has now given a roadmap, including multiple factors (systems capacity, testing, turnaround, PH response, reproductive rate, % pos, and numbers) in order to address this gap - knowing that lockdowns aren't going to eliminate COVID but just buy time.
Is it perfect - no - 10% positivity and 100/100000 cases per week - particularly in the context of areas with a high baseline amount of testing, represent significant uncontrolled community transmission. The signal to slow down society should likely be earlier.
I hope the province goes back - tweaks, revises, and understands the implications at each level. But I do think this type of a transparency roadmap, as long as it's objectively updated and communicated to public, is an important piece of navigating the next few months.
I am not saying we open the barn door like the USA and make no efforts - and those comparing it to that are making extreme assumptions. But I do think we have to thread our path moving forward with that of COVID-19 transmission being a part of our short/medium term future.
