1) Quebec’s chief public health officer floated the possibility this week that Montreal may soon move from the highest #pandemic alert, red, to orange after observing a plateau of new #COVID19 cases in the past few weeks. In this thread, I will argue why this is premature.
2) At present, two acute-care hospitals in the city are grappling with #COVID19 outbreaks on their wards: St. Mary’s and the Montreal General. In total, 19 patients and 21 staff have contracted the #coronavirus at both. See the chart below from St. Mary’s on Wednesday afternoon.
3) What’s more, there are #COVID19 clusters in nine long-term-care centres (CHSLDS) in the metropolis, along with six in seniors’ residences, with the situation being described as critical at the Résidence Lachine, where one in five occupants are infected with the #coronavirus.
4) In my Twitter thread Tuesday, I noted #COVID19 outbreaks in the city workplace rose to 70 from 58 a week ago. The director of the Montreal public health department has also acknowledged that the lion’s share of infectious flare-ups is in schools and they're going up.
5) True, Montreal posted its lowest number of new #COVID19 cases in almost two weeks on Wednesday, with 205. But given that some people are avoiding getting tested, what’s more important to monitor are the outbreaks. And all indications are that outbreaks are still rising.
6) What’s also noteworthy is how the #coronavirus keeps moving around the island of Montreal in unpredictable ways. As you can glimpse from the chart below, #COVID19 cases appear to now be proliferating more in the west end than the north and east ends.
7) Although the recent number of #COVID19 deaths have been higher in the Montérégie and Quebec City regions, Montreal is sadly still posting many deaths. In the past two days, the city has added nine fatalities to a death toll that has climbed to 3,538. See the chart below.
8) These trends warn that should the government ease the partial confinement restrictions in Montreal, the city would likely face another #COVID19 resurgence. The question to ask is why Dr. Horacio Arruda would even talk of Montreal moving back from red to orange. End of thread.
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