Thread: Alright, second "housing on the ballot" post-mortem. This one about land use/development. Let's start with some state and local legislative races.

First, Scott Wiener winning by a sizable margin is very important. If he lost to his progressive challenger, Dems in the Capitol would have been even more reluctant to get behind bills like SB 50 or dare to cross the state building trades, a powerful interest group.

Wiener is 1 of the few state lawmakers whose constituents might actually know who he is. On that note, I've always been skeptical that votes lawmakers consider difficult, with some rare exceptions (aka the gas tax), actually matter to their re-election all that much.

Let's test that theory a bit when it comes to housing votes. Speaker Anthony Rendon got considerable heat for how he handled SB 1120, which would have forced single-family-only neighborhoods across CA to allow duplexes. https://calmatters.org/housing/2020/09/democratic-squabbling-pandemic-year-housing/

His members had to vote on the bill, with nothing to show for it because it passed so late it couldn't become law. But a cursory look at lawmakers in suburban districts that might not be fans of denser housing shows at the very least there wasn't a major backlash

Evan Low, Dem from Cupertino, is on pace to win by 50 points over his GOP opponent. Sharon Quirk Silva, Dem from Orange County in a more competitive district, is slated to win by double digits.

Perhaps the one case you could make is Sen. Holly Mitchell, Dem from Los Angeles, who flirted with SB 50 but ultimately did not vote for it. Looks like she won her LA County supervisor race handily, and gentrification was a big issue there.

But overall, call me skeptical that these votes result in lawmakers paying the price at the polls. At the local level there's ample evidence of this, but the state level not much so far (granted, not much major state legislation has actually passed).

Alright on to the local measures. Mixed bag for density/development advocates. Measure Z in Alameda, which would have repealed a ban on apartment buildings on the idyllic East bay island, lost pretty resoundingly.

You know who represents Alameda in the state legislature? Nancy Skinner, big advocate for density and co-author of SB 50. Again, perhaps there's a disconnect here between voter attitudes in local initiatives/elections and state legislative races.

In Oceanside, a large beachside suburb in San Diego County, voters rejected a new development of nearly 600 low-density homes (don't know if this means single-family) approved by the city council. https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/politics/story/2020-11-03/close-call-for-measure-to-decide-oceanside-housing-project

These beachside communities stretching from Orange County to San Diego (Huntington Beach, Encinitas) remain an anti-development hotbed in CA.

As far as victories, density/development advocates can find some in San Diego. Measure E, which would allow building height increases in a "blighted" SD neighborhood, looks like it's passing.

And in the SD mayor's race, Asm. Todd Gloria is out to a significant lead. Gloria voted for SB 1120, and local control over housing was a pillar of his opponent's campaign.

San Mateo stuff looks too close to call. I'll do one more thread (if there's appetite) on homelessness/affordable housing on the ballot later today or tomorrow AM.