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Here's my hot take -- one I kinda believe, even as I suspect no one will agree.
COVID-19 ultimately didn't hurt, and may have helped, Trump & the GOP in the election.
Arguments:
1. Biden will end up winning by amount he was beating Trump in head to heads pre-pandemic. (1/x)
COVID-19 ultimately didn't hurt, and may have helped, Trump & the GOP in the election.
Arguments:
1. Biden will end up winning by amount he was beating Trump in head to heads pre-pandemic. (1/x)
2. COVID-19 became THE STORY, crowding out...well, all of the other stories.
3. It *IS* a pandemic, & 1 that throughout October became increasingly terrible across the world. Blaming Trump for COVID-19 much less fair than blaming him for cutting taxes for rich, anti-ACA, etc 2/x
3. It *IS* a pandemic, & 1 that throughout October became increasingly terrible across the world. Blaming Trump for COVID-19 much less fair than blaming him for cutting taxes for rich, anti-ACA, etc 2/x
4. Trump got to make essentially unchallenged claim that economy all good pre-COVID-19. Why blame him for a pandemic also crushing Europe.
5. Biden spent shockingly little time describing the medhanics of Trump's HHS/CDC effing up pandemic response, just assumed people knew. 3/x
5. Biden spent shockingly little time describing the medhanics of Trump's HHS/CDC effing up pandemic response, just assumed people knew. 3/x
6. So Dem critique became focused on something that felt fluky rather than predictive. How many more pandemics will we have?
7. While I am hard core on pandemic, I do think "COVID fatigue is real." Could totally see anti-maskers being drawn to Trump. (4/x)
7. While I am hard core on pandemic, I do think "COVID fatigue is real." Could totally see anti-maskers being drawn to Trump. (4/x)
8. Biden's basement campaign really underscored pre-existing concerns about Biden and age -- and literally meant there was little campaign travel until the end. Including key surrogates (where WAS Michelle, btw?).
9. Dem refusal to do ground with protocols was perverse. (5/x)
9. Dem refusal to do ground with protocols was perverse. (5/x)
10. Blaming Trump for COVID, and running on COVID alone, did NOTHING to hurt downballot Republicans.
An attack on the GOP's tax scam...
their attacks on the ACA...
etc... all implicate full ticket more. (6/x)
An attack on the GOP's tax scam...
their attacks on the ACA...
etc... all implicate full ticket more. (6/x)
Probably could come up with more, but I think vague blaming of Trump for a pandemic...
rather than detailed attacks on Trump governance that implicated Congressional GOP...
while Trump hustled hard as Biden & Harris did Zoom fundraisers to raise $ for useless TV ads.... (7/x)
rather than detailed attacks on Trump governance that implicated Congressional GOP...
while Trump hustled hard as Biden & Harris did Zoom fundraisers to raise $ for useless TV ads.... (7/x)
In impermanent conclusion.... COVID-19 helped the GOP. (8/x)
1 addition: As in 2016, I'm AMAZED that the Dems had no economic message...
that they didn't attack Trump's business record as indicative of how he would, or had, run the executive branch.
etc
Trump's core strength is economy, & he was allowed to run it unopposed twice. (9/x)
that they didn't attack Trump's business record as indicative of how he would, or had, run the executive branch.
etc
Trump's core strength is economy, & he was allowed to run it unopposed twice. (9/x)
Lest anyone think my focus on the need to describe in detail how Trump messed up COVID-19 response across executive branch....
consider this piece by my @revolvingdoorDC colleagues in FEBRUARY! We tried to model good behavior: https://prospect.org/health/the-trump-administrations-contemptuous-pro-corporate-response-to-coronavirus/ (10/x)
consider this piece by my @revolvingdoorDC colleagues in FEBRUARY! We tried to model good behavior: https://prospect.org/health/the-trump-administrations-contemptuous-pro-corporate-response-to-coronavirus/ (10/x)
