What will a Biden POTUS and R Senate mean for China policy? In short, it could help ensure more of the same but with a fully staffed executive that is eager to take an even harder line on HK/Xinjiang and deploy a more multilateral competitive approach toward China. (1/X)

First, the prospects for more controversial cabinet nominations that will have to find their way through a Republican Senate is diminished. There will be something of a China litmus test for nominees. In short, the door for Susan Rice at State probably closed.

The chances for nominees with broader support is even higher after a close election and with an R Senate. I have no doubt Michele Flournoy would receive the full support of SASC and 95+ votes on the floor. Ditto for those that could be picked as AS for Asia at State and DoD.

Second, expect a bipartisan Congress to be clear with a transition on the set of policy initiatives that it does not want to see reversed: Huawei, MCF policies, visa restrictions on PLA-linked researchers, media designations, while pushing implementation of existing PRC laws.

A Biden team also has a lot of Trump’s unfinished work to complete on Section 889, Section 224, Emerging and Foundational Technologies, and the ICTS regs (if they are continued).

Third, while Biden may have to narrow his ambitions for a domestic spending agenda this increases the likelihood he could throw his support behind existing bipartisan investment legislation related to China (New Frontiers, ORAN, and semiconductor manufacturing).

Fourth, there will be even more alignment with the WH on human rights issues and a Biden Treasury Secretary will likely be more inclined to deploy Treasuries’ tools to this end. Buckle up on this one.

Fifth, this is a win for the defense budget hawks and the right DoD leadership could bring even more energy to the debate over how to shift investments towards the right program of record for PRC.

Finally, there will be a strong check from Congress on the admin both to ensure PRC is a top policy priority and to avoid a return to the 2015-2016 issue linkage problems that plagued the Obama II years. The risk will remain but can be mitigated if the Senate deploys its powers.

Some are missing the point: this wasn’t meant to make the case Biden will be perfect or “tougher,” I’m sure there will be inconsistencies just like with Trump, but instead to analyze how a Biden potus and R Senate will interact with one another.