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THREAD: This election was about how the most racist man in the room expanded his Latino support, perhaps by 9% from '16 to '20 (see Latino Decisions Election Eve Polls)—and not just in FL, but all over the map. If we don’t understand why, we will end up in the same place in '24.
2: The narrative about the Latino vote cannot become ONLY that Latinos lifted Biden in AZ and NV (or WI or MI, for that matter—where there are plenty of Latino voters to cover the margin). That is heartening news, but it shouldn’t lead to self-congratulation or complacency.
3: In fact, Trump EXPANDED his support among Latinos from 2016 to 2020—expanded it, despite the wall, and child separation, and draconian immigration policy. How can this be?
4: For starters, Trump et al relentlessly courted Latinos since '17, touting economic policies and support for religious freedom. Even as they made family separation and the wall central parts of platform, they engaged Latino business owners and churchgoers early and often.
5: It was a split screen reality: Trump maligned and insulted immigrants in statements and on Twitter, while also saying he’d been better than any President ever for Latinos. And a fair share of Latinos seem to have bought it.
6: Trump also exploited the economic frustrations of many Latinos, young and old. Even if you disagree with his policy prescriptions, he stated clearly that he had the answers and would create jobs and make their lives better.
7: In other words, it’s not just that Biden could have done more outreach, and earlier. To think that more outreach earlier would have led to a dramatically different result underestimates the political agency of Latino Republicans, whose beliefs are sincere and deeply held.
8: Trump also exploited the already evident gender gap between Latino men and women, aggressively talking about law and order in a way that appealed to Latinos in the border patrol, military, and police departments.
9: People who identify as “Hispanic Republicans” often express a deep sense of partisan loyalty developed over decades. In the past fifty years, Latinos have supported Republican candidates at a rate of about 25 to 33 percent.
10: The history of these voters tells us something critical for the future of our democracy. You can learn more in my book, The Hispanic Republican, here, or happy to talk more.
