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Some quick high-level thoughts on the election:
1) WTF happened with the polls. This is a serious issue for our democracy that scholars across social sciences should work on addressing. Polls provide crucial information about the public's preferences and we need to get it right.
1) WTF happened with the polls. This is a serious issue for our democracy that scholars across social sciences should work on addressing. Polls provide crucial information about the public's preferences and we need to get it right.
2) Elections are nationalizing (ht @dhopkins1776). But still lots of spread btw Pres/Downballot in some states - ME, MT, KS, NH, etc. Suggests moderation & candidate quality still net a few percentage points on margin. Just not enough for Dems to win in places like KS.
3) Gerrymandering is really, really bad. It's undermining the fabric of our democracy. GOP gerrymanders in places like MI, NC, and WI withstood a full decade of elections.
4) Scholars need to do a lot more work to understand how partisan brands affect voting behavior, and what parties can do to change their brands.
5) Midterm slump likely to hurt Democrats in a Biden presidency, though less than usual due to divided government. Political Scientists should have more to say about what parties can do to influence political cycles. Specifically, what could Biden do to avert midterm slump?
6) The fact that Biden/Dems did worse than polls predicted does not mean that structural factors didn't matter. I think economy, COVID, and Dems' advertising advantage all likely hurt Trump. But causal effect of these factors just one part of larger electoral landscape.
