Some backyard number crunching for my home House district #ny21 and the North Country #adirondacks region. First big takeaway: It's probably most accurate to just describe the district as red now. The purplish days when Obama and Clinton fared well here feel very 2012. 1/

Looked at county-by-county there are still regions that look purple. Franklin-Clinton-Essex-Warren-Saratoga all look sort of 55-45 for Trump. But the rest of #ny21? It breaks 2-to-1 for POTUS. 2/

One other fascinating political fault-line is the NY-VT border. Two neighboring rural regions. Similar economies, lots of cultural overlap, people who work back and forth - but it's a whole different world in terms of voting. 3/

Why has #ny21 shifted so far to the red? Hard to say. Some possibilities: 1. @RepStefanik anchored the GOP's brand in ways that fit the district. 2. @realDonaldTrump connected deeply with voters here. 3. Post-2010 redistricting made #ny21 redder. 4. Gun control. 4/

All of which leaves Republicans in a commanding position in the region's political life and Democrats (to the extent that they exist in an organized way) with some big questions about how to build a meaningful movement that can win elections. 5/