Learnings from last night:

1. Biden likely wins. He's got AZ and NE-2 and WI, is holding NV, and if he wins MI (he's leading there with over 90% of the vote in), he's already at 270. He won't need GA or PA then, but could win at least one of those too.

2. Bernie would NOT have won this. Big lesson: The socialist/communist tag Trump pinned on Biden/Dems worked. Cuban Latinos likely cost him Florida. This could've been a wider effect if Bernie was the nominee. Far-right candidates can win in America but far-left candidates can't.

3. Fox News has a fantastic team of statisticians who probably pissed off Trump more than the other networks by calling Arizona for Biden earlier and sticking by it. They consistently had a higher electoral count for Biden vs Trump than the other networks, and they were right.

4. The lawsuits/recounts will come, but it's hard to see them having any dramatic impact if Biden's margins in MI/WI are wider than Trump's in 2016. Trump may fight over Pennsylvania, but that probably won't have an impact on the electoral count.

5. Importantly: A solid but narrow Biden win is a bigger repudiation of far-left "wokeism" than a Biden landslide would've been.

The message from this election is that voters will choose moderate and conventional liberals over those seen as radically leftist. The #1 message...

...that Trump was able to tar Biden with was that he was a radical leftist socialist. Biden largely pulled this off by rejecting the far-left wing of the Democratic Party. Again, far-right candidates can win in America, but far-left candidates can't.

A solid but smaller Biden win clearly tells mainstream liberals that the wokes are their political albatross. They should distance themselves from illiberal wokeness like Biden did (it didn't totally stick, but it stuck enough).

A larger win may have bolstered them.

6. Finally, Republicans increasingly have to rely on anti-democratic elements of the US system: (i) the Electoral College (winning the popular vote is all but irrelevant now) (ii) a Supreme Court where 5 of 9 unelected Justices were appointed by presidents who lost the popular...

...vote; and (iii) a Senate where California's 40 million people (more than all of Canada) and Wyoming's 600,000 people each get 2 Senators, and just 18% of the US population elects a majority of Senators (52). Yes, this means Republicans are smarter and more strategic about...

...winning, but it also means liberal Democrats are now a consistent majority in the United States. This is working for now, but is unsustainable for Republicans in the long run. The fact that Texas was so close in an election where Trump did so well is just one sign of that.