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Here's what I'm embarrassed by, pundit-wise. I didn't take my own research on the correlation between population density and party vote share seriously enough. https://www.niskanencenter.org/the-density-divide-urbanization-polarization-and-populist-backlash/
I basically wrote a short book arguing for the relatively deterministic view that state-wide elections more or less come down to whether there are more voters inside or outside the 50/50 vote share population density line -- "the density divide."
Because density correlates so strongly with educational attainment, non-white population share, conservative vs. liberal personality (for whites), and regional economic vitality and all those things correlate with party preference, we should expect this division to be very sticky
So I wasn't exactly stunned that, say, attitudes about police brutality or the seriousness of Covid, etc. swiftly polarized. But my own mental model of the electorate basically predicted that my own ID-based tendencies would make it tough to believe others wouldn't come my way.
I should have just taken what was actually clear--that there would be high turnout and suburbs were shifting a bit bluer--and just added up voters inside and outside a slightly nudged-out density divide, which would have put me at the conclusion that Biden should barely win.
Yet I thought he'd win by a bigger margin, even though I'd worked for over a year trying to explain why personality, education, inclination toward urbanizing migration, residential preference and party affiliation were all so durably correlated.
In short, it's awfully hard to be a Vulcan observer about something in which you've become a passionately invested participant. That your own Vulcan theory accurately predicts it doesn't much help.
"I was too right to see that I was so right" sounds like a weird humblebrag, but I'm seriously annoyed that I was effectively acting like my theory was a little wrong because at some level I simply hoped that the egregiousness of Trump's bullshit would break the polarized spell.
